Rangebound trading for Gold as Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady citing inflation

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Gold slides 0.98% to $4,576.24 today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India accelerated gold repatriation, bringing 77% of its reserves onshore and increasing domestic control over physical assets.
The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady amid sharply divided views since 1992 has heightened investor focus on inflation and policy risks.
Gold remains under short- and medium-term bearish pressure, but is expected to trade between $4,400 and $4,800 with long-term technical support intact and a moderate probability of upside consolidation.

Domestic repatriation and rate pause fuel sentiment shift amid pressure

The Reserve Bank of India has accelerated the repatriation of its gold holdings, bringing nearly 77% of national reserves onshore, with 680 metric tonnes now stored domestically. This shift increases domestic control over physical reserves and may impact global supply chains and liquidity for gold. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, in its most divided stance since 1992, has heightened investor attention to inflation dynamics and rate outlooks. Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, along with ongoing inflation concerns, have also contributed to shifting sentiment, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Long-term support tested as momentum bias signals seller dominance

Technically, gold is trading below both the SMA-20 at $4,732.10 and the SMA-50 at $4,722.46, but remains just above the SMA-200 at $4,558.55, highlighting this level as key long-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun line on the daily chart stands at $2,442.00, providing immediate underlying support. Among momentum indicators, both MACD and ADX on the daily chart continue to show a sell bias, while RSI is soft at 43.54 and points to mild bearishness. Stoch RSI currently sits in strong buy territory, BBP is deeply oversold at –35.72 indicating seller dominance, CCI is neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator is non-committal.

Sideways movement likely as rebound chances moderate with volatility

In the near term, XAU is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between $4,400 and $4,800 over the next five trading days. The probability of a price rebound is assessed as moderate, with key weekly momentum signals giving a supportive backdrop despite current session weakness. Sideways consolidation above the SMA-200 is likely to define the baseline scenario; a bullish break above $4,800 could trigger further upside, while sustained movement below $4,400 would confirm a deeper correction beneath long-term support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold under persistent selling pressure despite strong institutional moves like the Reserve Bank of India increasing domestic gold reserves. He notes key technical support at the SMA-200 and the lack of bullish momentum, with several indicators pointing to mild bearishness. Macro and geopolitical uncertainty provide some backing, but fundamentals and price action don’t confirm a sustained rebound yet. "Sideways consolidation above $4,558.55 remains my base case unless gold can break decisively above $4,800."

Previously it was reported that gold was trading under persistent downside momentum, with geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand shaping overall sentiment. The current analysis adds a new dimension with central bank activity and evolving technical signals, suggesting traders should closely monitor the SMA-200 as a pivotal support level that could dictate the next directional move.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.