Nvidia stock holds steady amid major asset managers control over 65% of shares

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Nvidia gains 0.20% today to $198.83

Highlights

Institutional investors have increased holdings in Nvidia, driving significant capital inflows and supporting recent buying activity.
Nvidia faces near-term revenue risk as all server sales to China cease following US chip export bans, affecting its international outlook.
Nvidia trades above key support at $190.50, with price expected to range between $194.00–$204.00 amid mixed momentum signals and moderate volatility.

Institutional inflows and China sales loss shape sentiment shift

Recent filings show several institutional investors, including WorthPointe LLC and others, have increased their holdings in Nvidia, providing a notable source of capital inflow and supporting current buying interest. At the same time, the company faces headwinds after its CEO disclosed a loss of all server sales to China in the wake of US chip export bans, introducing near-term revenue risk and shifting market sentiment around the company’s international outlook. Nonetheless, the stock remains closely held by major asset managers, and participants are watching for Nvidia’s next earnings set for May 20, 2026, which may drive volatility ahead of the event.

Mixed momentum as price consolidates above technical supports

Technically, NVDA trades above the SMA-20 at $197.20, SMA-50 at $187.14, and SMA-200 at $183.85, confirming multi-timeframe support. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $190.55 provides immediate support. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD D1 flashes a strong buy, but ADX D1 remains neutral and low, indicating subdued trend strength. The daily RSI is in buy territory at 52.97, while Stoch RSI is oversold, CCI is neutral, and BBP D1 reads overbought at 0.99. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral. Today’s session began with a gap up — the open at $201.54 exceeded the previous close ($198.43), but intraday action has pulled the price toward the lower half of the range, with moderate volatility and a tone of mild weakness after the initial jump.

Sideways bias with breakout risk near price boundaries

In the short term, NVDA’s trading range for the next five sessions is expected to be $194.00–$204.00, aligning with a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a high probability (greater than 80%) of the price continuing to rise. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways movement within this range. A breakout above $202.00 would likely trigger a move toward the upper boundary, while a retreat below immediate support at $190.50 could open the way for declines toward $187.00.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees institutional investors increasing positions in Nvidia as a strong sign of confidence despite recent setbacks in China. He believes that while export bans present short-term headwinds, the dominance of major asset managers and ongoing capital inflows offer macro and sentiment support for the stock. The alignment of key technical levels also strengthens the constructive outlook. The analyst expects volatility around earnings but maintains a positive bias. "With robust institutional backing and favorable technicals, I see continued upside potential for NVDA in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia remained resilient in the face of persistent supply chain disruptions and increasing regulatory and competitive pressures. The current environment adds fresh complexity with institutional accumulation offsetting new revenue headwinds from lost China sales, making the upcoming earnings event a key catalyst for volatility and directional confirmation.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.