Nvidia stock price forecast: $190 support in focus as NVDA trades down

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Nvidia slides 1.37% today to $195.72

Highlights

US export restrictions have eliminated Nvidia's AI chip market share in China, confirmed by CEO Jensen Huang, threatening long-term regional growth prospects.
Nvidia's production now depends on Asian suppliers for 90% of costs, increasing vulnerability to regional geopolitical and supply chain disruptions.
Technically, NVDA trades under short-term pressure with support at $190 and resistance at $202, likely to consolidate between $188–$202 barring a decisive breakout.

Market share loss and rising Asia reliance increase operational risk

Nvidia has reported that US export restrictions have resulted in a complete loss of market share for its AI chips in China, a development directly confirmed by CEO Jensen Huang. This outcome cuts the company off from a major regional growth engine and opens the door for local competitors to capture share. Simultaneously, Nvidia's growing reliance on Asian suppliers, now making up 90% of its production costs, has significantly heightened its exposure to potential economic and supply chain disruptions tied to Asian geopolitical and trade risks. Recent pre-emptive stockpiling activities by key partners such as SK Hynix further underscore the operational uncertainty facing Nvidia as US-China trade policy remains in flux, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Buy signals mixed with neutral trend as price tests short-term support

On the technical front, NVDA is trading below the SMA-20 level of $197.20, while remaining well above the SMA-50 at $187.14 and the SMA-200 at $183.85. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $190.55 provides immediate support. Resistance is identified near $202 and support rests around $190, with a further downside marker at $188. Daily MACD shows a strong buy signal, whereas the ADX remains neutral, indicating an uncertain trend. RSI is modestly bullish at 52.97, Stoch RSI marks oversold conditions, and CCI is neutral, suggesting possible mean reversion. BBP signals overbought conditions, but the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral.

Sideways consolidation scenario as volatility shapes near-term range

In the short term, NVDA is expected to move within a typical volatility band of $188.00 to $202.00, as indicated by recent trading ranges and key technical levels. The most likely scenario is sideways consolidation between support at $190 and resistance at $202 over the next several sessions. A break above $202 may trigger further upward movement if buying momentum returns, while a decline below $190 could open the way toward the $188 area if selling intensity increases.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Nvidia facing higher fundamental risks tied to its dependence on Asian suppliers and loss of AI chip access to China. He believes these macro headwinds create short-term uncertainty, though structural demand for AI solutions remains strong. Technical levels suggest consolidation within $188.00–$202.00 is likely, with medium-term indicators still constructive. "Despite serious regulatory and supply chain challenges, the underlying AI growth story keeps me constructive on Nvidia for the medium term."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia was managing conflicting pressures from institutional accumulation and lost China sales, with upcoming earnings seen as a potential volatility trigger. The latest developments deepen operational risk and highlight the significance of the $190 support level as a critical pivot for near-term direction.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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