Flat trading for Nvidia stock as China market share lost to zero

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Nvidia up 0.50% today at $198.89

Highlights

Nvidia has lost all market share for H200 chips in China due to severe regulatory barriers, halting related revenue growth.
Despite Chinese headwinds, Nvidia is expanding its U.S. defense presence with new government AI contracts and growing institutional investor support.
Technicals show NVDA trading in a $194–$210 range with elevated odds of sideways-to-bullish movement amid mixed momentum signals.

Investor confidence persists as China losses offset by defense gains

Nvidia's CEO recently confirmed that the company has lost all market share in China, generating no revenue from H200 chip sales despite obtaining a license in February; this points to significant headwinds tied to complex U.S. and Chinese regulatory barriers that threaten future export approvals and sales growth. Against this challenging backdrop, Nvidia has strengthened its U.S. national security footprint, as CEO Jensen Huang publicly endorsed the military's adoption of AI and announced new defense-related agreements, opening fresh opportunities in government contracting. Additionally, prominent institutional investors have increased their holdings, suggesting ongoing confidence in Nvidia's broader market prospects and helping stabilize investor sentiment.

Mixed momentum as oscillators and boundaries signal indecision

NVDA is currently trading just above the MA-20 at $198.22, with more substantial distance above the MA-50 ($187.31) and MA-200 ($183.98). The Ichimoku Kijun line at $190.55 now serves as immediate support for the price. Key intraday levels are set by the day’s range between $194.86 and $201.73, with technical resistance seen near $201–$210 and interim support at $194.86. Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture: the MACD is tilted strongly positive, but the ADX D1 at 16.86 suggests trend strength is weak. The RSI stands at 52.41, indicating mild buying pressure; meanwhile, the Stoch RSI is at an oversold extreme, the CCI is neutral, and BBP reflects overbought conditions with buyer dominance observed across most timeframes. Collectively, oscillators and momentum tools signal underlying market indecision and the development of a sideways consolidation phase.

Mild upside bias as volatility and support levels define path

Over the next five trading days, the typical volatility band for NVDA is expected to be between $194 and $210. There is a roughly 75% probability of an upward move, while the risk of a pullback remains notably lower. The base case calls for sideways trading, anchored above support at $190.55 and meeting resistance near $201–$210. If NVDA closes above $201.73, further gains toward the high $200s can be anticipated, while a break below $194.86 would likely see the $190 area retested.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Nvidia’s fundamentals staying strong despite the total China setback and ongoing regulatory risks. He notes that U.S. government contracts, robust institutional flows, and sector-wide momentum are driving sustained market confidence. The analyst believes technical signals suggest a consolidation phase, but strong support from real-money investors limits downside. "As long as institutional demand and U.S. government alignment remain, I expect Nvidia to defend above $194 and challenge resistance near $210 in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia was navigating heightened operational risks from lost China sales and increasing dependence on Asian suppliers, which contributed to market uncertainty and caution around its stock. The current environment adds a significant policy and national security angle while institutional support persists, making the $194.86 support level a critical pivot for traders as the prevailing scenario continues to favor sideways consolidation with a bias toward upward breakout potential.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.