Gold price forecast: $4,880 resistance in focus as XAU gains 2.73%

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Gold jumps 2.73% to $4,681 today

Highlights

Safe-haven demand for gold is elevated due to heightened geopolitical tensions and ceasefire instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
Potential disruptions to global energy flows are fueling inflation worries, outweighing headwinds from hawkish Federal Reserve signals.
Gold is expected to consolidate between $4,670 and $4,880, with strong long-term uptrend support and high probability of upward movement.

Geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven demand despite hawkish Fed signals

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive safe-haven demand for gold, given ongoing uncertainties from recent missile and drone attacks in the region. Persistent threats by Iran against transiting vessels and the potential for renewed naval conflict heighten the risk of disruptions to global energy shipments, raising inflationary concerns and amplifying investor appetite for protective assets. Meanwhile, hawkish policy signals from the Federal Reserve and rising oil prices have complicated the demand outlook by increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, but geopolitical instability remains the dominant factor shaping near-term flows.

Bearish momentum persists amid mixed technical signals and oversold bias

On the technical front, XAU is trading just below its SMA-20 ($4,696.52), slightly above the SMA-50 ($4,678.87), and well above the SMA-200 ($4,570.02). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $2,442.00 remains far below, confirming strong underlying support. MACD signals ongoing bearish momentum on the daily chart, while the ADX indicates sellers retain control. The RSI is at 41.89, pointing to mild seller pressure; Stoch RSI stands at 33.78, in "Strong Buy" territory, and CCI is neutral. BBP is notably oversold at -43.02, reflecting continued seller dominance intraday. A significant gap up from yesterday’s close to today’s open reflects heightened volatility, and the price is currently near the midpoint of today’s range.

Upside favored as price consolidates within defined volatility band

Over the short term, XAU is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band from $4,670 to $4,880, reflecting current market conditions. The probability of an upward price move exceeds 80%, suggesting further gains are more likely than a pullback. In the baseline scenario, gold stabilizes above $4,670 and continues to trade in this corridor. A bullish breakout above $4,880 could attract additional momentum buying, while a drop below $4,670 could trigger rapid profit-taking, though the strong long-term uptrend implies limited downside risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees strong macro and sentiment factors supporting further gains in gold. The dominant risk in the Middle East and the resulting safe-haven flows overshadow short-term pressure from higher rates and oil prices. He believes the technical picture also points to consolidation with a clear bias toward the upside. "As long as conflict-driven uncertainty persists, gold should remain well bid above $4,670, with an upside breakout increasingly likely if $4,880 is cleared."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold’s outlook was buoyed by structural demand drivers and heightened volatility amid evolving geopolitical developments. The latest escalation in Strait of Hormuz tensions further reinforces gold’s safe-haven appeal, making breaks above or below the $4,670–$4,880 corridor critical indicators for the next decisive trend move.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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