Natural gas prices remain supported after recovering from recent lows, with Henry Hub futures holding near the key $3.00/MMBtu area. The latest forecasts continue to point to persistent hot weather across several U.S. regions, particularly Texas and the southeastern states, increasing electricity consumption and boosting gas demand for cooling purposes.

At the same time, traders continue reducing large short positions accumulated earlier, providing additional short-term support for the market.
LNG flows and Middle East tensions keep the market highly sensitive
The global gas market remains extremely sensitive to geopolitical risks and potential LNG supply disruptions. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to raise concerns over the stability of shipments through key trade routes, while European buyers are actively increasing purchases ahead of the next gas storage season. In Asia, demand is also beginning to recover amid hotter weather and rising energy consumption, intensifying competition for spot LNG cargoes and limiting downside pressure on prices.
Strong U.S. production continues to cap upside potential
Despite the recent stabilization in prices, the broader fundamental backdrop remains relatively balanced. U.S. natural gas production remains close to record highs, while storage injections in several regions continue to exceed seasonal averages. At the same time, expanding LNG export capacity and growing structural demand from AI infrastructure and data centers are gradually improving the medium-term demand outlook. Market participants are increasingly focused on how quickly new LNG projects in the United States will be able to absorb domestic oversupply during the second half of the year.
Market outlook and key levels to watch
From a technical perspective, NATGAS is attempting to build a recovery after a prolonged period of selling pressure. As long as prices remain above the $2.85–2.80 support zone, the market retains the potential to advance toward the $3.20–3.35 area. However, failure by bulls to break above the $3.00 level could trigger long liquidation and push prices back toward the $2.80–2.70 region.
Overall, as previously noted in the article Natural gas maintains moderately bullish tone on weather and geopolitical risks, the market’s short-term direction will continue to depend on weather conditions, LNG export flows, and geopolitical developments.
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