The US natural gas market has moved lower in recent sessions after failing to secure a breakout above the key $3 per mmBtu level. As of late May, June Henry Hub futures are trading near the $2.90–3.00 range, as cooler weather forecasts across the United States have reduced expectations for strong power demand.
The latest NYMEX data showed prices falling toward $2.907 per mmBtu following weaker consumption outlooks.
Heat and LNG exports continue limiting downside pressure
Despite the correction, the market continues to receive support from strong LNG export volumes and expectations for hotter weather in the southern US states during June. Earlier last week, futures climbed above $3.02 per mmBtu amid stronger cooling demand and active short covering. Analysts note that any return of sustained heat could quickly push prices back toward the $3.10–3.20 range.
Gas inventories remain above normal and cap upside potential
The main bearish factor remains elevated US gas storage levels. The latest EIA report showed an inventory build of 101 billion cubic feet, above market expectations. As a result, inventories are currently around 6–7% above the five-year average, continuing to pressure bullish sentiment despite strong LNG exports. At the same time, the EIA maintains its average Henry Hub price forecast for 2026 near $3.50 per mmBtu.
What’s next for Natgas
In the short term, the market will remain highly sensitive to weather models and weekly EIA storage data. As long as prices hold near the $2.80–2.70 zone, the market may still retain recovery potential if hotter weather returns or LNG demand strengthens further. However, if cooler forecasts persist and production continues to rise, pressure on natural gas could intensify with risks of a decline toward $2.60–2.50.
As I previously noted in the article Natural gas holds below $3.00, lower gas prices could attract renewed buying interest.
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