The natural gas market currently presents a mixed picture. In the US, futures recently declined toward the 2.72–2.68 USD/MMBtu area, marking a local low under pressure from elevated storage levels and milder weather conditions. Still, prices remained up around 5.9% on a monthly basis.
Compared to last year, however, natural gas remains significantly weaker, down roughly 22–23%.
What is driving prices
The key short-term driver remains the balance between weather conditions, storage levels, and LNG exports. The latest EIA report showed a storage injection of 101 Bcf for the week ending May 15, above both market expectations and the five-year average for this period. Additional pressure came from seasonal maintenance at US LNG export terminals, with flows to export facilities in May falling to around 17.0 bcfd from April’s record 18.8 bcfd. This was partially offset by reports that the first US LNG shipments to China since February 2025 are expected in June, potentially supporting export demand.
Geopolitics and LNG
On the bullish side, the market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. According to the IEA, the global LNG market is expected to remain tight through 2030, while around 120 bcm of supply could potentially be removed from the market between 2026 and 2030. This matters because any escalation in the region quickly boosts demand for US and Atlantic LNG, supporting both Henry Hub and European TTF prices. In that sense, the current weakness in gas prices appears more like a temporary pause within a structurally tighter and more nervous market environment rather than a sustainable bearish reversal.
What matters next
For the coming weeks, the key question is whether US cooling demand will be strong enough to offset elevated storage levels and whether LNG exports will continue recovering after maintenance work. In Europe, attention will also remain on storage refill rates and the stability of import flows, including Russian LNG supplies, which reportedly increased during January–April 2026. In practical terms, natgas remains a market where short-term price swings are heavily influenced by weather and storage data, while medium-term support continues to come from constrained LNG supply and geopolitical risks.
Near-term outlook
The rebound from yesterday’s low is currently capped by resistance near 2.84, below which risks of another test of the 2.72–2.68 zone remain dominant. A break below that support area could trigger a move toward 2.62–2.60. However, as previously noted in Natural gas declines as cooler weather pressures prices, buyers may become more active on deeper pullbacks.
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