Natural gas prices remain highly volatile as the market continues reacting to geopolitical risks and the global LNG supply situation, with futures once again trading with a positive bias following escalating tensions around Iran, which increased concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the key routes for global LNG exports. Additional support came from maintenance work and temporary outages at several LNG export terminals, further intensifying concerns about tighter supply conditions during the summer period.
Europe slows the pace of gas storage injections
One of the key supportive factors for prices remains the relatively weak pace of gas injections into European storage facilities. EU gas inventories currently remain below seasonal averages, while competition with Asia for LNG cargoes continues to intensify. Analysts note that elevated summer prices reduce the attractiveness of aggressive storage injections, especially amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding supplies from Norway and Qatar. As a result, the market remains extremely sensitive to any supply-related headlines.
Global LNG growth may stabilize the market, but risks remain
Despite the current tensions, the medium-term outlook appears more balanced. New LNG volumes from the United States, Canada, and Qatar are expected to enter the market more actively in 2026, potentially easing the supply deficit. According to industry analysts, global LNG production could increase by more than 7% next year, helping reduce pressure on prices after several years of structural shortages. However, geopolitical tensions, hurricane season risks, and weather-related factors continue to remain major sources of elevated volatility.
What matters for the market now
In the short term, natural gas price action will primarily depend on developments in the Middle East, the pace of European storage refilling, and LNG demand from Asia. At the same time, any signs of easing tensions around Iran or the restoration of stable LNG flows could trigger a sharp downside correction.
Near-term outlook
At the moment, the base-case scenario for the market remains broad consolidation accompanied by elevated volatility throughout the summer period. Meanwhile, NATGAS futures, having rebounded from support around $2.80, tested resistance near the $2.90 level, from where selling pressure may resume with another test of the above-mentioned support area. A break above resistance would open the way for further growth toward $2.95.
As I have repeatedly noted before, particularly in Natural gas remains under selling pressure, declines in natural gas prices may continue to be viewed as buying opportunities.
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