Nvidia stock falls 1.76% as Taiwanese investigation into smuggling AI chips weighs

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Nvidia slides 1.76% to $210.90 today

Highlights

Nvidia posted record quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion and authorized an additional $80 billion in share buybacks, directly increasing shareholder returns.
CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a $150 billion annual investment plan for Taiwan, but Q2 data center revenue from China is expected to be zero due to export curbs.
Technicals show sideways trading within the $208–$215 range likely, with medium-term bullish momentum but ongoing short-term selling pressure.

Shareholder rewards and Taiwan expansion as export curbs pressure China revenue

Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, reflecting strong operational results and confirming robust product demand. Alongside earnings, the company’s board increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share and authorized an additional $80 billion in share buybacks, providing direct benefits to shareholders through enhanced distributions and reduced float. Additional developments included an announcement by CEO Jensen Huang of a $150 billion annual investment plan in Taiwan with a new Taipei headquarters, and the disclosure that no Data Center compute revenue is expected from China in Q2 due to ongoing export restrictions, while Taiwanese authorities opened an investigation into smuggling of Nvidia AI chips through Japan — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought signals and modest trend as resistance narrows

The price for NVDA is trading near the low of a narrow intraday range after opening with a slight gap down. The $214.61 (SMA-20) acts as immediate resistance, with further resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $215.64. Support is located at the $208 level, and more solid trends are confirmed by medium- and long-term moving averages (SMA-50 at $197.48, SMA-200 at $187.19). On momentum, the MACD (D1) continues to point to strong underlying buying potential, but the ADX suggests the prevailing trend is only modest. The RSI stands at a neutral to marginally bullish 53, while Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all indicate oversold conditions and ongoing short-term selling dominance.

Sideways action expected as breakout and correction risks develop

Over the next five trading days, NVDA is expected to remain within a $208 to $215 trading band based on typical volatility observed recently. The base case is for sideways movement within this corridor, with a convincing breakout above $215.64 likely opening a path to higher price targets. Conversely, sustained trading below $208 would expose the stock to further short-term correction risk.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s fundamentals as robust amid recent record revenue and bold shareholder actions. He notes that heightened regulatory risks in Asia and ongoing export bans to China add some uncertainty but are outweighed by strong operational numbers and commitment to investment, especially in Taiwan. The analyst expects price action to remain contained between $208 and $215 in the near term, with upward momentum building if resistance is cleared. 'With solid earnings, accelerating capital returns, and visionary expansion, I believe Nvidia remains structurally favored for further upside as soon as short-term selling abates,' he says.

Previously it was reported that Taiwanese authorities launched an investigation into potential smuggling of Nvidia AI chips through Japan to circumvent export restrictions. Amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny and the absence of near-term China data center revenue, traders should monitor the $208 downside level closely, as a decisive move below this support could accelerate short-term selling momentum.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.