White House reviews CFTC plan to regulate prediction markets

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CFTC prediction markets review

Highlights

A White House review is underway for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's proposal to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, as revealed by a new filing.
President Donald Trump publicly stressed the importance of preserving CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets as states push for their own oversight.
Gary Gensler claims the CFTC lacks Dodd-Frank authority to regulate prediction markets, predicting a Supreme Court decision that could reshape compliance and expansion in the sector.

Federal review and jurisdiction dispute

As reported by CNBC, a filing shows that a proposal for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on regulating prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket is under review by the White House.

The filing arrives on the same day that President Donald Trump says in a social media post that it is critically important for the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets to be maintained and for the sector to thrive.

The CFTC argues in public statements and in court that it has exclusive authority to regulate the growing prediction market sector, instead of leaving oversight to individual states. That position comes as some states seek to exercise authority over the markets themselves.

Legal objections and industry implications

Gary Gensler, the former chairman of both the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission, says that despite the agency's current claims, the CFTC is not authorized under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act to regulate prediction markets.

Gensler says regulation should rest with the states rather than the federal derivatives watchdog. He also predicts that the dispute over whether the CFTC or individual states have the power to regulate prediction markets will ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.

The clash points to a broader regulatory uncertainty for a fast-growing sector that sits between financial market oversight and state-level controls. A final resolution on jurisdiction could shape operating rules for platforms, compliance costs and expansion prospects across the U.S.

Our earlier coverage of the U.S. national debt and deficit debate examined how rising federal borrowing is intensifying scrutiny of the claims policymakers make about what’s driving the budget shortfall. We outlined estimates pointing to structural pressures—aging demographics, entitlement costs, and surging interest expenses—while noting that immigrants are generally found to improve, not worsen, the long-run fiscal balance.

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