Natural gas has re-entered a phase of active growth after several weeks of correction. The main driver is increasing expectations of summer demand in the U.S. and ongoing tightness in the global LNG market.
The June Henry Hub contract has climbed above $3/mmBtu, while July futures continue to hold near local highs. A breakout above $2.84 suggests a potential move toward $3.25–3.50 in the coming weeks, supported by heat-driven demand, recovery of U.S. LNG export flows, and rising electricity consumption.
Europe remains the key risk factor
Despite short-term price pullbacks driven by diplomatic signals around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the European gas market remains structurally tight. EU gas storage is currently around 38%, compared to the seasonal average of 52%, while injection rates have slowed significantly. Additional pressure comes from seasonal maintenance in Norway and strong competition with Asia for LNG cargoes. Analysts at Rabobank and ING warn that the market may be underestimating the risk of another price spike heading into the winter of 2026/27.
LNG becomes the main global driver
The market is increasingly driven not by the U.S. domestic balance, but by the global LNG deficit. Europe continues to aggressively expand long-term gas supply contracts with North America, and dependence on U.S. LNG has exceeded 60% by some estimates. At the same time, the EIA expects further growth in U.S. LNG exports in 2026–2027, reinforcing a bullish outlook for Henry Hub even amid rising domestic production. The export factor is now becoming the key driver of upward repricing in U.S. gas.
Base scenario: volatility with upside risks
Market consensus is gradually shifting toward higher average gas prices in 2026. Even with increased production in the Permian and Haynesville, analysts expect LNG demand to absorb a significant portion of new supply. Any intensification of heat in the U.S., disruptions to LNG supply, or geopolitical escalation in the Middle East could quickly push TTF back above €60/MWh and accelerate gains in Henry Hub. For this reason, many market participants view the current rally not as a short-term speculative move, but as the beginning of a new tightening cycle in the global gas balance.
Near-term outlook
NATGAS prices are currently testing resistance in the $3.00–3.02 range. A sustained move above this level would increase the likelihood of further upside, although some bearish pressure on rallies cannot be ruled out. Developments in the Middle East, as previously noted in Natural gas rebounds amid Middle East tensions and LNG supply risks, will continue to influence NATGAS price dynamics.
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