Aviva stock price forecast: GBX 604 support as AV trades within a narrow band

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Aviva slides 0.42% to GBX610.60 today

Highlights

Aviva’s wealth division now contributes nearly 10% of group earnings, underscoring a strategic move to higher-margin business lines.
The company targets £280 million profit from its wealth segment by 2027, reinforcing its push in retirement and insurance products.
Aviva shares remain under sustained selling pressure, trading below key moving averages with a weekly range projection of GBX 604 to GBX 615 and a bearish bias prevailing.

Earnings mix shifts and wealth profit targets reshape sentiment

Aviva’s wealth division recently approached 10% of group earnings, reflecting a concrete shift in the company’s earnings mix towards higher-margin business lines. The group has outlined a target of £280 million in profit from its wealth segment by 2027, shaping market expectations for long-term profitability. In the prior year, £4.6 billion of bulk annuities were written, confirming Aviva’s active expansion in retirement products alongside its insurance operations. Shareholder-focused initiatives, including the company’s stated dividend policy and buyback intentions, have previously influenced sentiment, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Firm downward momentum amid technical resistance and oversold signals

Technically, AV is trading below the SMA-20 at GBX 623.08, SMA-50 at GBX 624.48, and SMA-200 at GBX 651.13. The Ichimoku Kijun level at GBX 625.99 stands as immediate resistance. Both MACD and ADX remain negative, while the RSI at 42.89, Stoch RSI at 0.00, and CCI at -95.38 are all in or near oversold territory. BBP indicates sellers controlling the intraday tone, showing a divergence between daily overbought and intraday oversold signals. Today’s open occurred just below the previous close, and the last price is near the session low, suggesting moderate volatility and firm downward momentum after the open.

Low recovery odds as sideways trade and volatility persist

Over the next five trading days, AV is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between GBX 604 and GBX 615. The likelihood of a price recovery is low, with odds for an increase estimated below 20%. The baseline scenario is for a sideways move within this range; a break above resistance at GBX 626 would be needed to trigger a bullish move, which remains unlikely. Should the price fall below GBX 604, further downside could open up.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Aviva plc showing steady operational progress, with its wealth segment now forming a larger part of group earnings and concrete profit targets in place. Despite this, technical signals remain decisively negative, as AV trades below all key moving averages and momentum indicators confirm persistent selling. Sentiment around shareholder returns is not lifting price action. "Until GBX 626 is breached, I see little reason to expect a sustained recovery and remain cautious within the current range."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was integrating its Direct Line acquisition while contending with sector competition and lagging share performance versus peers. The current technical setup signals that sustained downward momentum places the onus on bulls to reclaim resistance at GBX 626, with a failure to do so likely exposing the shares to further volatility below the established range.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.