Why is Shell stock up today?

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Shell rises 2.28% today to gbx3189.00

Highlights

Shell continued its share repurchase program, buying back over 1.1 million shares for cancellation, signaling ongoing capital return to investors.
The company faces an unresolved legal dispute in Australia over Northern Endeavour decommissioning costs, adding potential regulatory risk despite reporting £267.3 billion revenue and £18.8 billion net income.
Technically, the stock is trading in a sideways range with negative momentum signals but oversold conditions, projected to hold between GBX 3,123.75 and GBX 3,232.50 in the near term.

Buybacks and legal overhang shape corporate actions and sentiment

Shell recently executed share buybacks, purchasing 1,000,000 shares on the LSE and 140,000 shares on Chi-X for cancellation as part of its ongoing repurchase programme, with Goldman Sachs conducting the trades. This follows several weeks of similar buybacks under its long-term initiative. The company is also engaged in a legal dispute over decommissioning and clean-up costs for the Northern Endeavour offshore asset, with proceedings ongoing in Australian courts, and recently reported annual revenue of £267.3 billion and net income of £18.8 billion.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views Shell's technicals as showing persistent short-term weakness despite today's price advance. He observes that the stock remains below its key 20- and 50-day moving averages with negative momentum indicators and only long-term support above the 200-day line offering stability. Continued buybacks have not convincingly shifted sentiment, and ongoing legal uncertainties add downside risk. Kharitonov remains cautious on the recovery, seeing short covering and bargain hunting as fragile drivers. "Despite the temporary upside, I see Shell as vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if support at GBX 3,123.75 fails to hold."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Shell’s recent rally as a positive response to strong fundamentals. He highlights consistent share buybacks and robust annual figures as underpinning a constructive backdrop. Karapetjanc believes the longer-term bullish structure remains intact as Shell sustains levels above its 200-day moving average. He sees room for further gains if resistance at GBX 3,212.25 is cleared. "I expect Shell to provide new opportunities for buyers, with further growth likely as institutional demand stays strong."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains wary of Shell’s outlook amid legal disputes and mixed momentum signals. He points to the dominance of sellers despite technical rebounds and notes the risk around unresolved decommissioning liabilities. Dele stresses that the upside may be short-lived without clear positive news or strong buying demand. "Unless Shell resolves its legal challenges and reverses negative momentum, I see limited justification for sustained upside."

Bearish momentum persists as oversold signals and resistance converge

Shell is trading just below its 20-day moving average (GBX 3,199.63) and well beneath the 50-day (GBX 3,321.13), but comfortably above the long-term 200-day (GBX 2,919.93). This positioning points to lingering short- and medium-term bearish pressure with longer-term support still intact. The closest dynamic resistance is indicated by the Ichimoku Kijun line at GBX 3,212.25, while the 200-day moving average serves as key support. Momentum indicators display a mixed picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) on daily intervals are both negative, suggesting the prevailing trend remains weak, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) all signal oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) reveals sellers still dominate on the daily chart, further signaling an oversold market environment. The stock advanced by GBX 71.00 or 2.28%, opening with a clear upside gap of roughly GBX 17.50, and is now trading near the daily high with intraday volatility at 1.39%. This points to renewed strength toward session highs, even as some momentum indicators remain cautious. Divergence between oversold oscillators and negative momentum suggests the recovery is tentative and likely driven by short covering or bargain hunting.

Earlier, analysts noted that Shell faced ongoing legal headwinds, regulatory scrutiny, and persistent bearish technical momentum, resulting in a cautious market outlook. The recent mix of resilient price action, substantial buybacks, and lingering technical resistance suggests investors should closely monitor whether the stock can sustain a move above the GBX 3,212.25 resistance, which could signal the start of a more constructive trend.

Source of Data: SHEL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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