Euro vs Hungarian Forint price forecast: Ft352.409 support as EUR/HUF trades sideways

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Euro vs Hungarian Forint slides 0.71% today

Highlights

Hungary's government proposed extensive anti-corruption and governance reforms to unlock up to HUF 6 trillion in frozen EU funds.
Market optimism is muted as actual fund release depends on EU approval, with asset prices still facing selling pressure.
EUR/HUF trades under sustained bearish momentum, with technical signals favoring further downside toward Ft352.409–Ft355.951 over the next 2–3 days.

EU fund hopes hinge on reforms as markets await approval

Hungary's government has submitted a package of legislative reforms to parliament, targeting the release of up to HUF 6 trillion (around EUR 16.9 billion) in previously frozen European Union funds. The reforms focus on anti-corruption measures, public asset oversight, transparency, and governance improvements, with the goal of meeting EU rule-of-law requirements and restoring long-term access to critical funding channels. While government officials have called these moves historic, the impact on market dynamics is contingent on actual EU approval, and price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold technicals limit rebounds as selling momentum dominates

On the technical front, EUR/HUF remains below the hourly MA-20 (Ft355.989), MA-50 (Ft355.968), and the long-term MA-200 (Ft377.694). The Ichimoku Kijun level is set at Ft356.040 and now acts as immediate resistance for the pair. Key indicators point to persistent weakness: the MACD has turned negative, ADX sits at neutral, and the RSI prints at 38.616, confirming selling momentum. Additional oscillators (Stoch RSI, CCI, BBP) are all heavily oversold, highlighting exhaustion in the current decline. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) also aligns with continued downside pressure, while a close near the session low on muted volatility reinforces intraday seller dominance.

Sideways trading likely as resistance caps bullish potential

Over the next two to three sessions, EUR/HUF is likely to oscillate within the typical volatility band between Ft352.409 and Ft355.951. The baseline scenario expects continued sideways moves in this corridor, with upward breakouts improbable given prevailing technical and momentum conditions. A true bullish scenario would require a close above Ft356.040 resistance, while a sustained move below Ft352.409 support may trigger renewed declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees constructive potential for the Hungarian forint as government reforms move forward. He believes that the submission of EU-compliant legislation marks a real step toward improving Hungary’s funding outlook. However, the actual recovery in the forint depends on the EU’s final decision. Price action remains weak, and technicals signal sellers remain in control for now. "If momentum shifts on material EU progress, I expect sentiment for the forint to improve, but confirmation from both Brussels and the market is still needed first."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/HUF was experiencing persistent bearish momentum amid failure to overcome major moving averages. The current backdrop, with technical exhaustion setting in and legislative reforms in focus, raises the likelihood of a volatility breakout once clarity emerges on EU fund approvals—making a sustained move outside the Ft352.409–Ft355.951 corridor the key scenario to watch.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.