-1.41% for Nvidia stock as US export restrictions on H200 GPUs curb optimism

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Nvidia slides 1.41% today to $209.21

Highlights

Kazakhstan's $10 billion AI infrastructure deal with Nvidia and partners marks a key expansion into Central Asia and diversifies revenue streams.
Nvidia advances growth in China by promoting Vera CPUs to offset regulatory restrictions on high-end GPU exports.
Technicals show prevailing selling pressure with NVDA trading below short- and medium-term averages, expecting a range of $202.63 to $215.79 in the coming days.

New Central Asia investment and China strategy as growth hedges

Kazakhstan finalized a $10 billion artificial intelligence investment agreement with Nvidia and associated partners, creating a route for significant new market entry and infrastructure development in Central Asia. This transaction opens up fresh revenue opportunities for Nvidia, though the immediate impact is moderated by the scale and deployment timeline of such projects. Additionally, Nvidia has sought to maintain access to Chinese markets by promoting its Vera CPUs to clients there, even as export restrictions continue to limit the supply of its H200 GPUs. Both developments suggest efforts to diversify growth avenues and mitigate regulatory headwinds, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technical momentum as daily resistance caps rebound

On the technical front, NVDA currently trades below its MA-20 and MA-50, but remains above the daily MA-200 which underscores longer-term strength. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $215.81, acting as the immediate resistance level. Key indicators signal mixed momentum: MACD flashes Strong Sell, ADX is Neutral, RSI stands at 48.1 and flags a Sell, while Stoch RSI marks Strong Sell and the CCI reads Neutral. Notably, the BBP indicator is Overbought, reflecting ongoing buyer dominance despite the price's soft intraday profile and a mid-range close.

Directional bias tilts lower as resistance and support are tested

NVDA is projected to fluctuate within a $202.63 to $215.79 band over the next two to three trading days, aligning with typical volatility relative to current levels. There is a 43% estimated probability of an upward break, while the likelihood of a downward move is 57%. If the price decisively exceeds the $215.81 resistance, additional buying could emerge and extend upward momentum. Conversely, a breach below $202.63 might accelerate selling pressure and bring recent support levels into play.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Nvidia as fundamentally resilient in the face of short-term technical weakness and market pressure. He notes that the landmark Kazakhstan AI deal and efforts to preserve Chinese market exposure are positive for longer-term growth. The analyst believes near-term volatility may persist, but the company’s proactive global partnerships and product adaptation help offset regulatory headwinds. "With ongoing innovation and strategic expansion, I expect Nvidia to maintain its leadership position despite current selling pressure."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia was maintaining a structurally strong, bullish trend amid robust buyer activity and AI-driven expansion initiatives. The latest developments—namely, major international partnerships and ongoing efforts to navigate regulatory hurdles—highlight the company's drive to diversify growth while mixed technical signals suggest traders should monitor $215.81 as the next meaningful resistance level for a potential shift in momentum.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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