Natural gas is consolidating near $3.24 after recent gains stalled below the $3.35-$3.40 resistance area. The market is still supported by hotter US weather forecasts, which are lifting power-sector demand for cooling, but the latest pullback on the chart shows that buyers are not yet strong enough to restart a broader rally.
Fundamentals
The latest EIA storage report showed a 76 Bcf injection for the week ended June 19, taking US working gas in storage to 2,835 Bcf. Stocks are 49 Bcf below last year’s level but still 152 Bcf above the five-year average, so the market has a storage cushion even as summer demand rises. This limits upside momentum and keeps rallies sensitive to weather forecast changes.
Demand and LNG
Near-term demand remains constructive because heat across key US regions is increasing gas burn for electricity generation. LNG demand also stays an important support factor, with EIA forecasting US LNG exports to rise from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 to 17.2 Bcf/d in 2026. At the same time, EIA expects Henry Hub prices to remain relatively contained this year as supply growth outpaces demand, with the spot price averaging around $3.34/MMBtu in the second half of 2026.
Technical picture
On daily chart, natural gas has recovered from the $2.70-$2.80 area but is now moving sideways below the long-term moving average and the $3.35-$3.40 resistance zone. Holding above $3.15-$3.10 keeps short-term recovery structure intact. A breakout above $3.40 could open the way toward $3.60, while a drop below $3.10 would weaken bullish momentum and shift focus back to $2.90-$2.80.
Conclusion
Baseline outlook remains neutral to moderately bullish while price holds above $3.10. As I stated in Natural gas holds near $3.24 as heat demand meets storage pressure, hot weather and LNG exports support demand, but above-average storage and resilient production limit upside. For now, natural gas needs a clear move above $3.40 to confirm stronger continuation; otherwise, the market is likely to stay in consolidation near current levels.
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