Kostyantynivka faces rising military risk as Russia presses Donbas offensive

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Kostyantynivka faces rising risk

Highlights

Russian troops are advancing on Kostyantynivka from three directions, turning half the area into a contested grey zone amid heavy casualties.
Only about 2,000 civilians remain in Kostyantynivka, where bombardment has cut off gas, water, electricity, medical aid, and food supplies, complicating troop movement and civilian evacuation.
Putin claimed full capture of Kostyantynivka, which—if confirmed—would mark Russia’s biggest advance in months and bolster its position for control over Donetsk and Luhansk.

Russian pressure builds around key Donbas hub

As first reported by Financial Times, Russian troops are advancing on Kostyantynivka from three directions, sustaining their campaign to seize more of Ukraine’s Donbas despite heavy losses. The city is a critical part of Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt, linking defensive positions through Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Lyman.

Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group with ties to the military, maps Russian forces closing in from the east, south and west, with roughly half the area shown as a grey zone under neither side’s full control. The group says it sometimes delays map updates for operational security.

Emil Kastehelmi, co-founder of Finland-based Black Bird, says Russia’s main advantage is manpower and its capacity to replace forces while absorbing very high casualties. He says Russian tactics follow a pattern seen in battles for Bakhmut and Pokrovsk, with urban areas first battered by bombs, missiles, artillery and drones before assault units move through the rubble.

Strategic and humanitarian consequences deepen

Kostyantynivka had a prewar population of about 70,000, but around 2,000 residents now remain after months of bombardment. Civilians are living without gas, water, electricity or medical assistance, while food supplies are dwindling and movement is heavily constrained by Russian drones.

The city sits inside what soldiers describe as a drone-dominated kill zone, making troop rotations and evacuations increasingly dangerous. Ukraine is relying more on unmanned ground vehicles for resupply and casualty evacuation, but their slow movement leaves them exposed, forcing many troops to travel on foot for miles.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said in mid-June that Kostyantynivka is under constant pressure but not on the verge of falling. Russia’s defence ministry said in late June that its forces were expanding operations on the south-western approaches and taking positions in the city, while Putin said on Friday that Russian troops had fully captured it, a claim President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejects.

If Moscow takes Kostyantynivka, it would mark Russia’s most significant advance in months and give the Kremlin a stronger position in its effort to control all of Donetsk and Luhansk. Putin is also likely to use any capture to argue that Ukraine’s defence of the territory is futile and to press for political concessions in any future peace talks.

Our earlier article on the bipartisan Russia sanctions push in Washington covered how four U.S. senators reached an agreement with the Trump administration to advance updated legislation aimed at Russia. We noted that the proposal would target buyers of Russian oil and natural gas to squeeze Moscow’s energy revenues and raise the economic cost of continuing the war.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.