USD/ILS holds ₪3.057 support: Support levels in focus

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US Dollar vs Shekel rises 0.47% today

Highlights

The strengthening of the shekel to the 2.8–2.9 range versus the dollar is squeezing margins for Israeli tech exporters reliant on dollar revenues.
Many Israeli firms, such as Wix.com Ltd., face rising operational costs and profitability challenges due to local-currency expenses amid currency volatility.
USD/ILS momentum remains bullish, with the pair expected to trade sideways in the ₪3.0617–₪3.0925 range as overbought conditions build.

Profit risks rise for Israeli exporters as shekel strengthens

A notable driver in the recent market environment has been the impact of the USD/ILS exchange rate decline on Israeli technology companies and exporters, with Gurufocus reporting a significant hit to profitability and operational cost increases, particularly for firms such as Wix.com Ltd. This currency movement has exposed many Israeli exporters to margin compression, as their revenues are primarily denominated in dollars while most expenses are local. According to Jewishtimes, the shekel’s recent strengthening to the 2.8–2.9 range per US dollar has further intensified pressure on the nation’s leading export sector, prompting concerns over the sustainability of earnings for companies with substantial foreign currency exposure.

Upside momentum faces overbought risk as technicals diverge

On the technical front, USD/ILS remains above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, as well as the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₪3.057 now acts as immediate support. Among momentum indicators, MACD issues a clear buy signal, ADX is neutral, and both RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI confirm overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power signals intraday buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator further reinforces the ongoing upside momentum. However, persistent overbought readings suggest growing risk of short-term exhaustion, with some divergence now emerging across multiple indicators.

Bullish prospects dominate short-term amid low downside risk

Looking into the next two to three trading days, USD/ILS is expected to move within a volatility band of ₪3.0617 to ₪3.0925. Price action is projected to stay largely sideways within this corridor, with the probability of a move higher assessed as very high and the likelihood of a downward break considered very low. A bullish case would see the pair closing above resistance, while a drop below the Ichimoku Kijun support at ₪3.057 would open the way for a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, an expert at Traders Union, views the current USD/ILS setup as technically supported but fundamentally challenged. He sees ongoing risks for Israeli tech exporters due to the shekel’s strength and persistent margin pressure. Momentum indicators suggest upside in the short term, but overbought signals and divergent fundamentals keep him defensive. "Until USD/ILS clearly breaks above resistance or the shekel weakens, I stay cautious on further upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/ILS was supported by persistent bullish momentum but faced the risk of near-term exhaustion. The current analysis adds a new dimension by highlighting rising pressure on Israeli exporters from shekel strength, underscoring the need for traders to monitor potential volatility if the pair approaches or breaches the established support at ₪3.057.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.