AUD/JPY holds steady as buyers remain in control short term

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Australian Dollar vs Yen up 0.54% today

Highlights

AUD/JPY trades above key short-term and long-term moving averages, confirming persistent bullish momentum across timeframes.
Oscillator readings reach overbought territory, raising short-term pullback risk even as momentum signals continue to support buyers.
Forecast range for the next 2 to 3 days is ¥112.86 to ¥114, with a much higher probability of an upward move than a reversal lower.

Overbought signals intensify as momentum diverges from price

On the technical front, AUD/JPY trades above MA-20 at ¥112.93 and MA-50 at ¥112.69 on the hourly chart, while remaining well above the longer-term MA-200 at ¥111.54 (daily). The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ¥112.87, which acts as immediate support. Among momentum indicators, MACD shows a buy signal and ADX is neutral. However, RSI at 75.75, along with Stoch RSI and CCI, are all in overbought territory—pointing to increased risk of a short-term pullback even as Bull/Bear Power favors buyers. The Awesome Oscillator supports continued upward momentum, but the cluster of overbought readings suggests potential for divergence between price and momentum.

Bullish bias persists while volatility band contains risk

Looking ahead, AUD/JPY is expected to remain within a volatility band of ¥112.86 to ¥114 over the next two to three trading days. The probability for an upward move remains very high, while the chance of a downside reversal is low. The baseline scenario sees price consolidating between the immediate support at ¥112.87 and resistance around ¥114. A clear bullish breakout above ¥114 could open further gains, but failure to hold above the support near ¥112.87 may lead to a move lower.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees constructive momentum in AUD/JPY as the pair holds firmly above its key moving averages. He notes that bullish indicators are in play, but overbought signals from RSI and similar metrics suggest conditions are stretched for now. Karapetjanc expects the pair to trade between ¥112.86 and ¥114 in the coming days, with a strong probability of further upside if resistance near ¥114 breaks. "AUD/JPY’s short-term outlook remains positive, but caution is warranted until the overbought signals reset," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that sellers had the upper hand in AUD/JPY despite a longer-term bullish structure. The current setup now signals a clear short-term shift in favor of buyers, making a sustained hold above ¥112.87 pivotal for further upside momentum.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.