Nvidia stock exceeds $154 as AI demand fuels breakout past key resistance

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Highlights

- Nvidia has broken above long-standing resistance at $143, closing at $154.31 amid strong technical momentum.

- Continued demand for AI chips and major international partnerships are driving bullish sentiment.

- Short-term price target stands at $160, with potential for $170 if current momentum holds.

The stock has now posted four consecutive days of gains and broken decisively above the key resistance level at $143, which had capped prices for nearly five months. This bullish breakout is reinforced by a golden cross formation on the chart—where the 50-day moving average has overtaken the 200-day moving average—indicating a strong, sustained uptrend.

Short-term technical indicators continue to favor further gains. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, just shy of overbought territory, suggesting there could be room for additional upside before any meaningful consolidation. Volume has also increased in tandem with the price move, supporting the legitimacy of the breakout. The next clear resistance level is seen at $160, a key psychological and technical barrier projected by the extension of the bullish flag pattern formed between February and June.

NVDA stock price dynamics (April 2025 - June 2025). Source: TradingView

Support levels have now shifted higher, with the $143 breakout point turning into immediate support. Below that, the 50-day moving average at $130 serves as secondary support, aligning with previous consolidation zones. A pullback toward these levels would be considered healthy within the broader uptrend and could provide new buying opportunities.

AI demand and partnerships outweigh geopolitical risks

The sharp rebound in Nvidia stock is primarily fueled by continued strength in artificial intelligence (AI) demand. The company remains the undisputed leader in high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) for AI applications, with its Blackwell platform gaining rapid traction. Most recently, Nvidia secured a major multi-year partnership with a Saudi Arabian AI startup, involving the sale of hundreds of thousands of advanced GPUs—signaling growing global demand for its technology outside of traditional Western markets.

This comes at a time when Nvidia is absorbing a $4.5 billion inventory charge related to U.S. export restrictions on high-end chips destined for China. Yet the market has largely shrugged off this geopolitical setback, focusing instead on Nvidia’s record-setting fiscal Q1 revenue of $44.06 billion, up 69% year-over-year. Gross margins also improved sequentially, highlighting the company's pricing power and efficient operations even in a complex macro environment.

Investment banks and analysts have taken note. Barclays recently raised its price target on Nvidia shares, citing robust demand for AI infrastructure and resilient forward guidance. Other institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, maintain overweight ratings, emphasizing that Nvidia remains the most critical hardware enabler of the generative AI revolution.

$160 likely in the near term, $170 in sight if momentum continues

The technical setup and market momentum suggest Nvidia shares are well-positioned to reach $160 in the near term. This level corresponds to the projected target of the recent bullish flag breakout and is reinforced by investor enthusiasm surrounding the AI theme. A close above $160 on strong volume could set the stage for a run toward $170, where traders will likely reassess valuation and earnings multiples.

That said, the rally is not without risks. A cooling of AI hype, renewed regulatory pressure on chip exports, or broad market weakness could lead to profit-taking. Should Nvidia retreat, the $143 level is expected to act as a strong support zone, followed by $130, where buyers are likely to re-enter.

Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lowered investor risk aversion, benefiting tech stocks like Nvidia. With the market refocusing on fundamentals, Nvidia stands out due to its robust growth and industry leadership.

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