Michigan Senate race highlights GOP split on tariffs as Trump mentions fall in ads

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Michigan Senate GOP tariff split

Highlights

Mentions of Trump in Republican general election ads have dropped to 4.3% from 47.1% per AdImpact data, reflecting a strategic messaging shift.
Rogers reversed his support for Trump’s tariffs in an October 7 ad, responding to voter concerns as Michigan’s $80 billion in annual trade with Ontario faces pressure.
Tariffs cost Michigan households about $1,000 annually, while 64.2% of voters oppose Trump’s Canadian tariffs, and automakers reported $6.5 billion in 2025 tariff-related costs.

Ad strategy shifts as Rogers changes message

As reported by CNBC, Republican candidates are largely dropping Trump from their general election advertising after relying heavily on him in the primaries, with mentions falling to 4.3% from 47.1%, based on an analysis of AdImpact data.

That shift is especially visible in Michigan, where Rogers released an Oct. 7 ad calling for an end to the tariff fight with Canada and saying the country is not an enemy. The message marks a sharp change from September, when he was still defending Trump’s tariffs and saying the president was right to put America first.

Rogers is in a tight race with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a contest that could help decide Senate control. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race as a toss-up, while polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne shows El-Sayed with a four-point lead.

Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said candidates needed to follow Trump closely to win primaries but now need to show independence to compete in November. He said Rogers’ late shift risks looking tactical rather than authentic after months of alignment with Trump.

Trade ties and cost pressures dominate Michigan

Michigan’s economic links with Canada are making tariffs a particularly sensitive issue for voters. The state conducts about $80 billion in annual trade with Ontario, and Canada remains its largest export market, buying $23.2 billion in goods last year, or about 39% of all Michigan exports.

The pressure is especially acute for automakers because parts routinely cross the border before final assembly. General Motors, Ford and Stellantis reported about $6.5 billion in combined tariff-related costs in 2025, while Michigan’s agricultural exports to Canada fell 12.3% that year.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s administration estimates tariffs are costing Michigan households about $1,000 a year on average. An early September WDIV/Detroit News poll by the Glengariff Group found 64.2% of likely Michigan voters oppose Trump’s Canadian tariffs, and nearly 62% say they hurt the state economy.

Rogers is also trying to steer the campaign toward cultural issues, including transgender rights, while El-Sayed is keeping the focus on affordability. Analysts say that strategy may limit the impact of social issues in the race’s closing weeks, with the economy still likely to remain the main concern for Michigan voters.

United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain has secured re-election, setting the stage for a new leadership term as the union prepares for tougher negotiations with General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. Our earlier coverage noted that automakers are entering the next bargaining cycle under heavier cost pressure, with tariffs and other input costs tightening margins and raising the stakes for labor talks.

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