Silver price prediction: XAG/USD downside risk grows amid falling volume and dollar strength

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Sholanke Dele

29.07.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD downside risk grows amid falling volume and dollar strength — Silver EMA crossover and bearish RSI confirm weak momentum

Silver continues to trade in a tight consolidation zone this week despite broader weakness in the precious metals market.

Unlike gold, which has faced sustained pressure since Monday, Silver has resisted follow-through selling, holding within a narrow range between $38.33 and $37.91. As of the European session on Tuesday, Silver is still trading near $38.10, anchored inside Monday’s compressed trading range.

- Silver holds near $38.10 despite last week’s sell-off and broader metals weakness

- Death cross on 4-hour EMA and bearish RSI tilt reinforce short-term downside pressure

- Falling volume and dollar strength continue to cap Silver’s upside attempt

The resilience is notable given last week’s selloff, triggered by stronger U.S. dollar sentiment and easing trade tensions. The United States signed new tariff agreements with key partners, including Japan and the European Union, which helped lift the dollar while dampening demand for safe haven metals. This reversal in sentiment led Silver to close last week with a gravestone doji candlestick on the weekly chart. Such a pattern is often interpreted as a warning of potential downside reversal. However, there has been no significant follow-through this week.

Silver price dynamic (May - July 2025). Source: Tradingview

On the hourly chart, Silver’s RSI has stayed in bearish territory for more than five days, suggesting that despite the current consolidation, short-term momentum remains tilted to the downside. This bearish bias was reinforced today on the 4-hour chart, where the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA at $38.45. This death cross marks a fresh layer of bearish pressure and aligns with the broader dollar strength narrative.

Silver 20-50 EMA cross on 4-hour chart aligns with extended RSI bearish tone

Daily volume has also declined steadily for the past four days. Monday’s session saw the lowest volume of the past two weeks, which helps explain the constrained price action. Low participation often leads to indecisive candles, especially when larger market narratives such as Federal Reserve expectations are still evolving.

A key factor weighing on Silver is the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for longer. This outlook has kept demand for the U.S. dollar elevated and weighed on non-yielding assets like Silver. As long as the dollar strength persists, the upside for Silver could stay limited.

The immediate support to watch lies at the 20-day EMA near $37.85. A clean break below this level could invite fresh selling pressure toward the next key support at $37.31. Until then, Silver traders will likely stay focused on the range’s edges while watching for volume spikes or a dollar retracement to break the deadlock.

Silver gained support from a weaker dollar after dovish Fed remarks reduced demand for the greenback. Price broke above $38.15 as volume and RSI confirmed strength toward imbalance zone.

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