Gold price prediction: XAU steady near $3,363 as fed bets and tariffs boost safe-haven demand
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading close to $3,363 per ounce following Monday’s modest 0.17 percent gain, marking a continuation of the sharp recovery that began late last week. After bouncing from key support near $3,300, the metal rallied in its strongest single-day move in two months.
Highlights
- Gold trades around $3,363 after rebounding from $3,300 support on soft U.S. jobs data
- Rate cut odds rise to 81% after July payroll miss, fueling precious metals momentum
- Trump’s new tariff policy triggers risk-off sentiment and supports gold’s safe-haven appeal
That rise returned Gold price action firmly inside the ascending channel pattern, with all major EMAs (20/50/100/200) reclaimed and now tightly aligned between $3,331 and $3,339. This crossover region has flipped into support, confirming short-term bullish control.
Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
The next resistance stands at $3,380, the channel’s upper boundary. A breakout above that level could open room toward $3,420, while rejection may lead to a pullback toward $3,320 or the midline of the structure.
Macroeconomic tailwinds support gold outlook
The rally was largely fueled by weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data released Friday, which showed 73,000 jobs added in July versus 100,000 expected. The miss led markets to aggressively price in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with Fed funds futures now reflecting an 81 percent probability. Lower rate expectations have pushed real yields downward, making non-yielding assets like gold more appealing to investors.
In parallel, geopolitical risks have intensified. President Donald Trump announced a new tariff regime on August 1, targeting a wide array of global imports with duties ranging from 10 percent to 41 percent, effective August 7. The move has renewed concerns about trade disruptions, which in turn have strengthened demand for gold as a hedge against economic and political instability.
In earlier coverage, we flagged gold’s retest of the $3,300 zone and emphasized that a sustained recovery would hinge on reclaiming the EMA cluster. That bullish crossover is now in place, and as long as price holds above $3,330, the bias remains upward. Traders will closely monitor the $3,380 breakout level as the next directional trigger.
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