Weekly forecast: U.S. Government $8.9B stake purchase pushes Intel stock higher

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Mikhail Vnuchkov

23.08.2025

Weekly forecast: U.S. Government $8.9B stake purchase pushes Intel stock higher — Intel shares jump after Trump and Lip-Bu Tan investment deal

An agreement for the U.S. government to acquire 433.3 million Intel shares worth $8.9 billion (9.9% of its authorized capital), following last Friday’s negotiations between Donald Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, drove Intel’s stock price up 5% initially and further thereafter.

Over the weekend, INTC traded at $24.80, about 20% above the $20.47 purchase price agreed with U.S. authorities.

The deal guarantees Intel funding to build and expand manufacturing capacity in the United States. If Intel’s semiconductor business continues to grow, the U.S. government may increase its stake in the company.

Another positive outcome of the Trump–Tan meeting is the restored investor confidence in Tan. After Tan took over Intel this spring, the media scrutinized his investments in around 40 Chinese companies with controlling stakes and 600 with minority stakes, some tied to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Earlier in August, Trump even called for Tan’s dismissal.

While the government’s purchase of Intel shares is seen as a supportive factor, analysts warn it could raise concerns about corporate governance and business efficiency. Skeptics also note Trump’s investment is not “free money” like the grants Intel received during the Biden administration.

A double-edged tech sword

Further stock growth will depend on the $2 billion SoftBank deal to acquire shares at $23 and, more importantly, Intel’s ability to deliver high-quality 18A and 14A chips and secure large-scale orders. Reuters reported that Intel’s current 18A process, less advanced than 14A, faces yield challenges.

“We don’t believe any government investment will change the foundry’s fate if it cannot attract enough customers,” said Ryuta Makino, analyst at Gabelli Funds, which owns Intel shares.

Nonetheless, these investment agreements boost investor confidence and give Intel breathing room to develop its advanced foundry business.

Technical indicators show strong support for INTC shares at $21.3–$22.1 (converging 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs). Upside movement will face resistance around $26–$26.3, the highs from August and earlier this year. Analysts expect Intel’s shares to trade within this range through the end of August.

Intel stock daily chart. Source: Trading View

Signals of possible Federal Reserve rate cuts are broadly positive for tech stocks, but Intel faces strong competition from NVIDIA and TSMC. Thus, new contracts and foundry milestones remain the best catalysts for INTC growth.

As we wrote, Intel stock price retreats below $21 as failed breakout revives bearish pressure

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