LVMH stock rises 1.7% as HSBC calls on luxury rebound

Highlights

- LVMH gained 1.7% to €521.8 following an HSBC upgrade driven by expectations of a Chinese demand recovery and improved cost structures.

- Technical indicators point to a potential breakout, with the stock holding above its 50-day moving average and RSI near 58.

- Short-term price targets range between €510 and €550, with bullish scenarios extending toward €580 into early 2026.

Currently, the stock is trading slightly above its 50-day moving average, suggesting the beginning of a potential trend reversal. This short-term momentum indicator has recently flattened, indicating a possible transition from a corrective phase to a recovery. The 200-day moving average lies further below, around the €500 level, providing a strong long-term support base. A sustained move above the 50-day MA could open room for a retest of the €540–€550 resistance zone, last seen in late spring.

Relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering near 58, a neutral-bullish level that still leaves room for upside without indicating overbought conditions. Volume has also shown a moderate uptick in recent sessions, adding credibility to the recent price movement. From a technical standpoint, €510 serves as immediate support, followed by the €495–€500 range, while resistance lies near €535 and then €550.

LVMH stock price dynamics (June 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Investor sentiment appears to be cautiously improving, as evidenced by the narrowing Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, which often precede a breakout move. The narrowing volatility range, combined with the recent bullish candle formations, supports the case for a potential upside breakout. Moreover, MACD lines are approaching a bullish crossover just above the signal line, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. These technical signals, while not conclusive on their own, add weight to the argument that LVMH may be transitioning from consolidation into a new upward phase, particularly if confirmed by a strong close above €530 in the coming sessions.

Sector momentum returns after HSBC upgrade

HSBC’s upgrade of LVMH and Kering is a strong signal to markets that the worst may be over for the European luxury sector, at least for the major players. HSBC analysts cited expectations of a rebound in Chinese demand and highlighted efforts by companies like LVMH to simplify internal operations, enhance cost controls, and improve long-term profitability. These structural improvements, combined with a normalization of global travel and luxury consumption, were key in justifying the bullish reassessment.

The move comes after a turbulent first half of 2025, in which the luxury sector was pulled in different directions. High-end brands like Hermès reported strong double-digit growth, while others struggled with slower China sales and weakening U.S. consumer sentiment. LVMH, whose exposure spans fashion, leather goods, wines, and spirits, has been particularly sensitive to macroeconomic shifts. Its revenue performance earlier this year reflected flat growth in Asia and stagnation in U.S. markets, contributing to a cooling in investor enthusiasm.However, signs of stabilization in China and resilient demand in Europe are now prompting a rethink. Travel retail is picking up, and mainland Chinese consumers are slowly returning to discretionary spending. HSBC believes this shift could reaccelerate luxury demand going into 2026, positioning global players like LVMH for renewed earnings momentum.

Projected price channels and breakout scenarios

The base case assumes that in the next three to six months, LVMH is likely to trade between €510 and €550, supported by gradual recovery in Chinese demand and stable operating margins. If bullish momentum continues, the stock could break above €535 resistance and retest its yearly highs around €550. This scenario assumes no negative macro shocks and steady investor sentiment.

The bull case envisions that if demand in China recovers more strongly than expected and cost efficiency efforts yield faster results, LVMH could extend its rally toward €570–€580 by early 2026. This would represent a gain of around 10–12% from current levels and would likely coincide with sector-wide upgrades and strong Q4 earnings.

LVMH’s rebound aligns with broader structural shifts, including Euronext’s expansion of single-stock options that now cover LVMH shares. This development may boost liquidity, improve price discovery, and enhance hedging tools for both institutional and retail investors.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.