Tesla stock tops $349 as energy storage momentum offsets EV delivery concerns

Highlights

- Tesla is gaining investor support as its Megablock energy solution promises faster deployment and lower costs, boosting the company’s non-automotive growth.

- Despite declining vehicle deliveries, the energy segment's strong performance is helping offset weakness in EVs. - A breakout above $360 could propel the stock toward the $400–$420 range in the near term.

The current intraday range spans from $346.30 to $356.24, with increased trading volume reflecting elevated investor interest following the company’s recent energy storage announcement. Tesla’s short-term chart signals consolidation just below a critical resistance band between $360 and $380. A confirmed breakout above this zone could trigger further upside momentum. On the downside, support is seen in the $320 to $330 range, where the stock previously found buyers during periods of broader tech weakness.

The 50-day moving average is beginning to turn up, suggesting the potential for a bullish crossover if price continues to hold above the $340 level. The 200-day moving average remains flat to slightly negative, highlighting that Tesla is still in recovery mode after months of underperformance, particularly in its core automotive division.

Tesla stock price dynamics (July 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Technical momentum is favoring bulls in the near term, but the stock needs to decisively clear $360 to confirm a new uptrend. Until then, traders may see a consolidation pattern between the support and resistance levels, with high sensitivity to macro and company-specific news.

Megablock and Musk package dominate Tesla headlines

Tesla's stock gains this week are largely tied to two major developments: the unveiling of its Megapack 3 and Megablock energy storage units, and the board's renewed push for a controversial yet potentially lucrative compensation package for CEO Elon Musk. The new Megablock product consolidates multiple components—batteries, switchgear, transformers—into a single, deployable unit. Tesla claims this could cut installation time by 23% and construction costs by nearly 40%. This is a notable efficiency leap that positions Tesla to compete more effectively in grid-scale storage markets.

Meanwhile, the proposed Musk compensation package, potentially worth over $1 trillion if all performance targets are met, has sparked both enthusiasm and skepticism. The plan hinges on extremely ambitious milestones, including delivery of 20 million vehicles annually and significant advances in autonomous driving. While some investors see it as a long-term alignment of incentives, others fear dilution or distraction from core operations.

Amid this backdrop, Tesla’s automotive segment remains under pressure. Vehicle deliveries fell approximately 13% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Q3 projections suggest a year-over-year decline of 7%, with Europe particularly weak. This underscores the company’s need to diversify growth beyond EVs, a strategy clearly reflected in the focus on energy products.

Tesla could target $400 if resistance breaks

Assuming momentum in energy storage continues and third-quarter vehicle deliveries come in close to expectations, Tesla shares could push higher into the $400 to $420 range over the next 4 to 8 weeks. Breaking above the $360–$380 resistance band would likely be the key trigger for this move. Positive sentiment around Megablock adoption and approval of Musk’s compensation plan could act as catalysts.

In a more bullish scenario, where Tesla gains traction in both energy and automotive units—particularly with new battery or AI announcements—shares may accelerate toward the $500 level. This would likely require broader market support and strong Q4 delivery guidance, possibly alongside breakthroughs in self-driving technology.

Tesla is seeking permission to operate pickups and drop-offs at major Bay Area airports, aiming to expand its supervised ride-hailing pilot in one of California’s busiest travel markets. While no formal permits have been issued, the move signals Tesla’s broader strategy to gain ground in autonomous mobility despite regulatory hurdles.

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