Nvidia stock holds steady at $177 amid AI momentum and export risks

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Highlights

- Nvidia is trading steadily at $177.43, supported by strong AI-driven revenue and a bullish long-term technical trend.

- Despite beating earnings expectations, the stock faces headwinds from U.S. export restrictions and slowing quarter-over-quarter growth.

- Resistance around $185–190 remains a key barrier, with upside potential dependent on regulatory clarity and sustained AI demand.

From a technical perspective, Nvidia remains in a long-term uptrend. It continues to trade above its 50-day simple moving average, which sits around $165, providing a strong short-term support level. The 200-day moving average is further below at approximately $135, indicating that even with a moderate correction, the longer-term trend would remain intact.

Key short-term support levels include $170, which served as a recent consolidation base in August. A break below this could open the door for a test of the $150–155 range, which acted as a springboard during the May–June breakout. On the upside, the $185–190 region presents immediate resistance. The stock tested this zone briefly following its Q2 FY2026 earnings but failed to hold those gains.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (July 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume trends show a tapering off of bullish conviction, with declining average daily trading volume over the past two weeks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 58, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. Momentum remains neutral to mildly bullish, but without a fresh catalyst, price action may remain range-bound.

Earnings beat overshadowed by export controls and growth deceleration

Nvidia's recent financial performance continues to impress, but the market has grown more cautious. In Q2 FY2026, the company reported revenue of $46.74 billion, marking a 56% increase year-over-year, driven largely by record data center sales tied to AI and machine learning demand. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.05, beating analysts' expectations.

Guidance for Q3 was slightly above estimates, with the company projecting $54 billion in revenue. Gross margins are also expected to expand slightly due to improved product mix and higher ASPs (average selling prices) for newer-generation GPUs. The company’s flagship Blackwell architecture is gaining adoption among hyperscalers, and early signals suggest strong demand for its upcoming Rubin AI video platform.

However, geopolitical risk is casting a shadow. Due to updated U.S. export restrictions, Nvidia has been unable to sell its H20 chip to customers in China, which had previously accounted for a significant portion of its international data center revenue. Analysts estimate that China contributed roughly 20–25% of Nvidia’s data center segment sales last year. While Nvidia has downplayed the impact, the market remains sensitive to regulatory developments.

Consolidation likely before breakout attempt

Looking ahead, Nvidia’s price outlook remains moderately bullish, though the path higher is likely to be choppy. In a base-case scenario where macro conditions remain stable and the AI capex cycle continues, Nvidia could retest the $190–200 range by late Q4. This would require a breakout above the current resistance band, supported by a strong Q3 earnings print or positive developments on the regulatory front.

In a bullish scenario, where export controls are relaxed or new international partnerships emerge, the stock could climb toward $220–240. This would likely be accompanied by higher-than-expected growth in the automotive and AI inference markets. On the downside, sustained weakness in China, combined with broader tech sector volatility or rising bond yields, could trigger a pullback toward the $150–160 support zone.

The U.S. government has approved a framework allowing Nvidia to resume H20 chip deliveries to Chinese firms, in exchange for a 15% revenue-sharing agreement. This deal enables Nvidia to unlock frozen orders from major cloud players like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, who remain keen to secure its hardware despite local pushback.

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