Nvidia stock consolidates at $175 as William Blair reiterates outperform rating

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Nvidia stock consolidates

Highlights

- Nvidia is trading at $175.65, down 0.3%, but remains in a strong long-term uptrend.

- William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating, highlighting growth opportunities from AI infrastructure and the Intel partnership.

- Export restrictions and high valuation pose risks, yet demand from hyperscalers continues to support the bullish narrative.

On the technical front, the stock is hovering just below its recent high of $184.48, well above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The 50-day moving average sits near $174, acting as immediate support. The 200-day moving average, which defines the long-term trend, is significantly lower at around $145, underscoring the strength of Nvidia’s rally this year. As long as the stock remains above $170, the broader trend remains intact. Overall, the technical picture supports a bullish bias unless a decisive break below the $170 level occurs.

Momentum indicators are mixed. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in neutral territory, indicating the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD continues to signal bullish momentum, although the histogram has narrowed in recent days. Short-term support lies near the $172–174 zone, while resistance is seen at the recent swing high near $184. A clean breakout above this level could signal a continuation toward the $190–$200 range. However, if momentum weakens further, a temporary pullback to the mid-$160s cannot be ruled out.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (July 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Nvidia’s valuation remains elevated, with a forward P/E ratio around 38 and a trailing P/E above 48. While this suggests high expectations are baked in, it is broadly in line with Nvidia’s historical premium, particularly in periods of transformative technological adoption—such as the current AI wave. The stock is pricing in significant future growth, which means any earnings miss or slowdown in AI demand could prompt swift revaluation. That said, the premium valuation continues to attract growth-focused investors confident in Nvidia’s leadership position.

Analyst confidence grows despite export uncertainty

Nvidia received a vote of confidence this week as William Blair reiterated its Outperform rating on the stock. The endorsement follows Nvidia’s announcement of a deeper strategic collaboration with Intel, including a $5 billion stake in Intel and integration of Intel CPUs into Nvidia’s NVL72 AI racks via NVLink technology. This move significantly expands Nvidia’s reach into the x86 server ecosystem, potentially unlocking a $50 billion market opportunity, according to CEO Jensen Huang.

This partnership is seen as a strategic hedge against Nvidia’s over-reliance on its own GPU-centric systems, and a way to make its AI infrastructure more versatile and attractive to enterprise clients. The market responded positively to the news, helping offset broader concerns around U.S.-China tensions and potential export restrictions. By aligning with Intel, Nvidia also positions itself to better compete with AMD in the AI server segment, where CPU-GPU integration is becoming increasingly important.

Those concerns are far from resolved. Ongoing U.S. export controls affecting high-performance chips like the H100 and H20 could limit Nvidia’s ability to deliver to Chinese cloud providers and data centers. While these issues were partially accounted for in Nvidia’s latest guidance, the exclusion of some revenue from future quarters adds a layer of unpredictability. Any further tightening of trade policy could weigh on Nvidia’s top-line growth and increase supply chain complexity.

Risk-adjusted outlook into Q4

In the bullish case, Nvidia breaks above the $184–185 resistance and enters a new rally phase toward $200–$220, driven by improved clarity on exports, positive news from major AI customers, or strong uptake of Blackwell chips in Q4. Such a move would likely attract additional institutional inflows, as fund managers often chase momentum in market leaders. A rally of this scale could also push Nvidia to set fresh all-time highs, reinforcing its position as the bellwether for the AI trade.

The base case is continued consolidation between $165 and $185. In this scenario, Nvidia trades sideways as investors digest macro data, earnings updates, and evolving regulatory news. Support is expected at the 50-day MA near $174, with potential dips toward $165 in weaker sessions. Range-bound trading would allow overextended technical indicators to cool off, reducing the risk of a sharper correction later. It would also give investors time to reassess Nvidia’s valuation in light of upcoming earnings guidance.

Nvidia’s $5 billion investment for a nearly 4% stake in Intel marks a major strategic shift from rivalry to ecosystem integration. The partnership will see Intel design CPUs to complement Nvidia GPUs, strengthening Nvidia’s push toward full-system architectures and boosting its leverage with competitors and OEMs.

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