Nvidia stock gains 3.4% after $100B partnership with OpenAI on data centers

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Highlights

- Nvidia shares climbed 3.4% after unveiling a $100B AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI.

- The deal secures multi-year demand for Nvidia’s chips and strengthens its leadership in AI data centers.

- Technicals remain bullish, though near-term consolidation between $170–185 is possible before another rally.

The 50-day MA sits around $176, while the 200-day MA is near $148—indicating a strong medium- to long-term uptrend. The slope of all major MAs is upward, and short-term moving averages are above long-term ones, a classic bullish alignment. This structure reflects consistent investor confidence and sustained institutional accumulation. Additionally, the recent bounce off the 20-day MA near $172 confirms that buyers are defending support levels aggressively.

Momentum indicators also favor further gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) is approaching 70, the overbought threshold. This suggests bullish momentum is strong but may be nearing a short-term exhaustion point. However, in strong uptrends, RSI can remain elevated for extended periods without triggering a reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is comfortably above the signal line, reinforcing the buying pressure. Moreover, the histogram is widening, signaling that the bullish momentum may accelerate if resistance at $185 is breached.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (July 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume has surged in recent trading sessions, showing institutional accumulation. Options activity has also tilted heavily toward calls, suggesting traders expect further upside in the near term. Immediate support lies at the $175–178 range, aligning with the 20-day and 50-day MAs. Should the price break below these levels, the $170 zone becomes critical—this level has historically acted as a pivot. On the upside, resistance sits near $185, which is the recent intraday high. A breakout above this could trigger a move toward the psychological $200 level.

OpenAI deal marks strategic expansion in AI compute infrastructure

Nvidia’s announcement of up to $100 billion in investment in OpenAI marks a transformative moment for both companies and the AI sector broadly. Under the deal, Nvidia will support the development of at least 10 gigawatts of AI data center infrastructure, powered by its high-performance chips. The first 1 GW facility is expected to go online in the second half of 2026 and will feature Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin architecture.

Notably, OpenAI will pay Nvidia in cash for the hardware, while Nvidia gains a non-controlling equity stake in OpenAI—effectively securing future revenue without diluting its balance sheet. This move ensures Nvidia will remain the backbone of AI infrastructure for years to come. It also raises barriers to entry for rival chipmakers like AMD, Intel, and even custom chip initiatives from hyperscalers such as Google and Amazon.

The deal comes as global demand for AI training and inference capacity is outpacing supply. Nvidia’s move puts it at the center of this buildout, not just as a supplier but also as a strategic partner. This development follows other recent Nvidia investments, including a $5 billion stake in Intel’s foundry unit, which signals the company’s ambition to diversify and solidify its supply chain.

Short-term upside intact, medium-term depends on execution

In a base-case scenario, Nvidia consolidates between $170 and $185 as the market digests the OpenAI news and awaits further earnings data. This would be a healthy pause within a larger uptrend. Sideways movement in this range would allow technical indicators like RSI to cool off, reducing the risk of a sharp pullback. It would also give institutional investors time to reassess valuations and potentially accumulate more shares.

In a bearish scenario—triggered perhaps by regulatory action, delays in data center buildouts, or a macroeconomic shock—Nvidia could retrace to support levels at $160 or even $150. However, strong fundamental tailwinds make this a less likely outcome in the short term. A break below $170 would likely trigger profit-taking and algorithmic selling, amplifying downside pressure. The $150 level coincides with the 200-day moving average, making it a crucial technical line in the sand.

William Blair reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Nvidia following news of a deeper collaboration with Intel, including a $5 billion investment. The partnership integrates Intel CPUs into Nvidia’s NVL72 AI racks, a move CEO Jensen Huang says could unlock a $50 billion market.

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