EUR/USD steadies at $1.1785 as investors await PMI data and Powell remarks

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Euro steadies at 1.1785 ahead of PMI and Powell

Highlights

- EUR/USD trades at 1.1785, easing from a test of 1.182 resistance.

- Euro sentiment, supported by stronger consumer confidence and PMI expectations.

- Key support sits at 1.1765–1.177, with resistance near 1.182–1.1835.

The euro has been buoyed by improving confidence in the Eurozone. The European Commission’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to -14.9 in September, better than forecasts and up from -15.5 in August. Economists expect today’s PMI releases to show steady services activity and a modest rebound in manufacturing, adding weight to the view that Europe’s economy is holding up despite ongoing trade frictions.

The dollar, meanwhile, remains capped by dovish signals from the Fed. Governor Stephen Miran argued that rates should move closer to 2%, pointing to long-term shifts such as immigration and tariff revenues that may lower the neutral rate of interest. By contrast, other Fed officials including Alberto Mussalem and Beth Hammack emphasized the risk of inflation. The divergence has reinforced policy uncertainty, but markets continue to price multiple rate cuts into early next year, leaving the dollar under pressure.

Technical landscape holds firm

Technically, EUR/USD is finding support at 1.1765–1.177, where an ascending trendline from mid-August converges with the 50-day EMA. Below this, stronger support sits near 1.1705, aligned with the 100-day EMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the July rally. A sustained break under 1.17 would expose the pair to 1.1585.

EUR/USD price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

On the upside, resistance remains clustered around 1.182–1.1835, the same zone that capped gains earlier this week. A close above this level would open the way toward 1.19, the September high, with scope to retest the 1.1965 extension if momentum builds. The RSI is neutral at 51, signaling balanced conditions after recent swings.

Outlook hinges on PMI results

The immediate path for EUR/USD will depend on today’s PMI releases. Strong Eurozone data would likely propel the euro back above 1.182, while weak U.S. figures could add pressure to the dollar, amplifying gains. Conversely, a downside surprise in European data or hawkish remarks from Powell could push the pair back toward 1.17.

Overall, the bias remains cautiously bullish so long as EUR/USD holds above its trendline support. Investors are watching for fundamental confirmation before committing to a sustained push toward 1.19.

Previously, we highlighted the importance of the 1.1765 support as a pivot for buyers. That level remains central, with price action again showing respect for the trendline. A breakdown below this zone would mark the first serious challenge to the euro’s recovery trend since mid-August.

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