From Greenland to OPEC: WTO forecasts and new gold records

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WTO forecasts and new gold records

Politics

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that the United States may revisit its idea of acquiring Greenland despite the current lull. She said the island’s 60,000 residents still “live in fear of an American takeover.” Frederiksen emphasized that Denmark “will not yield to threats or pressure,” reaffirming that Greenland must determine its own future.

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At the same time, Poland added two Russia-linked companies — SteelTrade and Omni GRP — as well as three beneficiaries to its national sanctions list. According to the Polish tax authority, the firms supplied high-strength steel suitable for weapons production to Russian factories through a chain of intermediaries. Warsaw stated that the goal of the sanctions is to prevent the strengthening of Russia’s defense capabilities.

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Economy

The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 to 2.4% from the previous 0.9%, but expects a slowdown to 0.5% in 2026 due to economic cooling and higher tariffs. Key drivers remain strong demand for AI-related products and robust performance in Asia, which accounted for two-thirds of global trade growth in AI-related goods.

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Traders have begun demanding that Indian refiners pay for Russian oil in Chinese yuan instead of U.S. dollars. State-run Indian Oil Corp has already completed several transactions in yuan. The shift reduces currency conversion costs and highlights China’s growing role as a key intermediary in Eurasian energy trade.

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Tesla unveiled “affordable” versions of its Model 3 and Model Y priced at $36,990 and $39,990, respectively. Analysts, however, say the prices are too high to attract a new class of buyers. Tesla shares fell 4.5%, and CEO Elon Musk once again faced criticism for releasing simplified versions of existing models rather than the long-promised $25,000 mass-market EV.

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Market reaction

Gold and dollar. Gold surpassed $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history, extending gains amid the U.S. government shutdown and rising political risks. The metal is up more than 50% this year, outperforming equities and other assets. Central banks continue to buy gold at record levels, while investors pour money into gold ETFs. The U.S. dollar index climbed to 98.9 — a two-month high — as investors sought safety during the political standoff in Washington.

Oil. Brent rose to $65.93 a barrel and WTI to $62.24 after OPEC+ opted for only a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day. Markets viewed the move as a cautious signal, with analysts noting that supply remains manageable despite ongoing concerns over potential Russian disruptions.

Equities and currencies. U.S. futures hovered near flat after the S&P 500 snapped a seven-day winning streak. A 2.5% drop in Oracle shares, following weak cloud-margin forecasts, reignited debate about an “AI bubble.” Analysts warn that markets are entering a euphoric phase, though short-term upside remains. The yen and euro are under pressure, while the dollar strengthens even amid the shutdown. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 4.13%.

Crypto markets. Bitcoin corrected to around $121,000 after reaching a record high, while Ethereum slipped to $4,400. Despite the pullback, sentiment remains bullish: institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs topped $3.5 billion for the week, pushing total assets under management to a record $195 billion. Analysts note that as long as BTC stays above $120,000, the market remains resilient and the correction looks healthy after weeks of strong gains.

Comment of the day

Global markets are balancing between geopolitical risks and technological optimism: gold hits new records, the dollar strengthens, and investors flock to safe havens amid the U.S. shutdown and Europe’s political strains. At the same time, institutional inflows into crypto and sustained demand for AI technologies are keeping risk appetite alive. Economic uncertainty now coexists with selective growth — investors are more cautious, yet still willing to pay for the future.

As a reminder, on October 6 the global agenda centered on France’s political crisis, the massive OpenAI–AMD deal, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which is pushing gold and Bitcoin to new records. Against this backdrop, oil is edging higher and the euro is weakening, as investors seek a balance between geopolitics, interest rates, and tech optimism.

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