Nvidia stock slips 1.1% despite surging demand for Blackwell chips

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Nvidia stock slips

Highlights

- Nvidia stock slipped 1.1% but held above the key $180 level, supported by strong demand for its next-gen Blackwell GPUs.

- CEO Jensen Huang confirmed “really high” interest, with strategic partnerships like xAI and OpenAI reinforcing Nvidia’s AI leadership.

- Analysts remain bullish, with earnings due November 19 expected to guide the next major move.

The 50‑day moving average is currently trending near the $174 mark, serving as dynamic support, while the 200‑day moving average sits comfortably lower near $138, underscoring the strength of Nvidia’s longer-term trend. Despite recent volatility, the stock remains well above both averages, suggesting ongoing institutional interest and long‑term bullish bias.

Short‑term resistance lies at $190, where the stock has previously faced selling pressure. A breakout above this level would likely invite renewed momentum toward the psychological $200 barrier. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $175, with a more critical floor at $170. A sustained drop below $170 could open the path to deeper pullbacks toward $155, a level last seen during the pre‑Blackwell launch period.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (August 2025 - October 2025). Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 58, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutral momentum setup gives Nvidia room for both upside continuation and downside correction, depending on news flow and market sentiment. Volume patterns show accumulation ahead of earnings and key product announcements, indicating investor positioning for long‑term AI growth rather than short‑term trading.

AI demand and partnerships boost Nvidia's position

NVDA remains at the heart of the AI infrastructure boom. Most recently, the company confirmed its fiscal third‑quarter report date as November 19, and CEO Jensen Huang described demand for the company’s next‑generation Blackwell GPUs as “really, really high”. Meanwhile, the broader tech‑heavy group known as the Magnificent Seven (which includes NVDA) is estimated to account for roughly 34% of the S&P 500’s total market cap—underscoring NVDA’s outsized impact on the index and market sentiment.

On the demand front, NVDA secured partnerships, including with xAI (founded by Elon Musk) and alignment with large AI data‑centre build‑outs, reinforcing its leadership in the hardware/software stack. Export and competition risks persist, however. For instance, competitors like Oracle Corporation recently announced a partnership with NVDA rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), raising competitive risk for NVDA’s dominance.

Analyst sentiment remains predominantly bullish. For example, one recent note from Oppenheimer & Co. designates NVDA a top‑pick with a $225 price target. Simultaneously, other research firms such as Evercore ISI raised FY 2026 second‑half sales estimates by ~$5.5 billion and bumped their target to $225. These reflect the conviction that NVDA is well‑positioned for the next wave of AI infrastructure build‑out. At the same time, some analysts (e.g., from Bernstein) caution that the company’s involvement with startups that may also become large customers raises “circular” governance questions—although demand remains healthy.

Price forecast and scenario analysis

In a base case scenario, NVDA holds above the $175–180 support band, consolidates in the $180–190 range, and with moderate positive catalysts advances toward $200–205 in the next 3–4 months. This suggests upside of roughly +10–15% from current levels. The base case also assumes stable macro conditions and continued momentum in AI infrastructure demand.

In a bull case scenario, if NVDA reports very strong Q3 results on November 19 and provides robust guidance, or if the Blackwell ramp surprises to the upside or China restrictions ease, the stock could break above $190 and push toward $220–230 over the next 4–6 months, implying +20–25% upside. The bull case further assumes expanding enterprise AI budgets and strong adoption of Nvidia’s next-generation GPUs.

Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein highlights the unusual dynamic where Nvidia’s biggest customers are also becoming its biggest competitors. Major tech firms are increasingly developing custom AI chips to reduce dependence on Nvidia and cut costs.

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