Silver price prediction: XAG/USD extends losses by 7% amid Trump-China comment

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22.10.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD extends losses by 7% amid Trump-China comment — Silver bearish momentum builds amid profit-taking

Silver price extended its decline on Wednesday, deepening the retracement that started late last week from the all-time high at $54.42.

The metal fell below the 20-day EMA to reach an 11-day low at $47.5, marking a 7.3% drop on Tuesday and extending weekly losses to 6.45%. The correction has now erased two weeks of gains and pushed total losses from the peak to more than 11%.

- Silver drops 7.3% Tuesday, falling below 20-day EMA and erasing two-week gains.

- Fed rate cut optimism fades, driving outflows from safe-haven metals like silver.

- Bearish 20-50 EMA crossover and neutral RSI point to deeper downside risk.

The initial pullback began last Friday as profit-taking accelerated in an overbought market that had rallied nearly 48% since early August. The sharp move lower was confirmed by increased trading volume, reflecting stronger selling participation. The breakdown below the 20-day EMA at $49 has now turned that level into short-term resistance. During Wednesday’s European session, silver traded near $48.5, posting a mild 0.6% loss as price struggled to reclaim the broken EMA barrier.

Silver price dynamics (Sept - Oct 2025). Source: Tradingview

Technically, the retracement structure suggests momentum remains in favor of sellers. The bearish crossover between the 20 and 50 EMAs on the four-hour chart near $51 reinforces the case for extended downside. The RSI on the daily timeframe has dropped from overbought readings toward neutral, and a further decline into bearish territory could invite more selling pressure. The next significant support lies around $45.2, which aligns with the 50-day EMA and serves as a potential area for buyers to re-emerge.

Silver sentiment weakens as risk appetite improves amid easing trade tension

Fundamentally, the weakness in silver has been driven by the perception that markets have already priced in much of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts for October. The absence of fresh dovish signals has reduced speculative demand for metals, while stronger risk sentiment in equities has diverted investor flows away from safe-haven assets.

Adding to the retracement pressure were remarks from President Trump expressing optimism about securing a “good deal” with China before the November 1 tariff deadline. The prospect of eased trade tensions temporarily dampened demand for precious metals. However, if optimism fades or rate cut expectations shift again, the metal could find renewed support at lower levels.

In the short term, the focus remains on whether silver can stabilise above $47.5. Sustained rejection from this area could confirm a temporary base for recovery, while a close below it may open the path toward the $45.2 support zone.

We discussed silver dropping 9% in three days, breaking its bullish structure and testing support at the 20-day EMA. A stronger dollar and renewed equity optimism weighed on silver.

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