EUR/USD price tests Fib golden ratio as traders focus on NFP data
EUR/USD price ended a three-day bullish streak on February 6, briefly falling below the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at 1.0372 before buyers reclaimed it.
Today, the pair has climbed to 1.0400 in the European session, setting up a potential test of the Fibonacci golden ratio at 1.0410. However, trade tensions between the US and the EU add further uncertainty to the euro’s outlook.
US President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance on trade has weighed on the euro, as he described the EU’s trade balance as an “atrocity” and threatened tariffs. European leaders have vowed to retaliate if such tariffs are imposed, adding to market concerns. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Piero Cipollone indicated that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates further as inflation slows, warning that trade disputes could negatively affect the eurozone economy.
Fibonacci levels in focus to shape EUR/USD outlook
Traders will now watch upcoming German Industrial Production data, as well as the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today, both of which could influence EUR/USD’s direction.
EUR/USD price dynamics (December 2024-February 2025). Source: TradingView.
The 1.0372 Fibonacci 50% retracement level remains a crucial support for EUR/USD. If the pair breaks below this threshold, selling pressure could intensify, leading to further declines. On the upside, the next key resistance is at 1.0410, the Fibonacci golden ratio, which has historically acted as a pivotal level for price movements. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further gains, but a rejection here may reinforce downside risks.
Beyond 1.0410, the 50-day EMA at 1.0442 presents a stronger resistance barrier. This moving average has capped price advances in previous sessions, making it a key level for traders watching for confirmation of a bullish breakout. However, momentum indicators present a mixed picture. While the daily RSI is neutral, the 4-hour RSI remains in bullish territory, suggesting that buyers still have control in the short term. If the price maintains strength above 1.0410, an attempt to clear the 50-day EMA could follow, potentially shifting momentum in favor of the bulls.
EUR/USD price faced a reversal of its recent gains after reaching a four-day high. ECB officials remain confident that inflation will return to the central bank’s target of 2%.
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