EUR/USD price stalls below 2024 low due to dollar strength on trade tariffs

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Sholanke Dele

11.02.2025

EUR/USD price stalls below 2024 low due to dollar strength on trade tariffs — EUR/USD under pressure as Trump’s tariffs bolster the US dollar.

EUR/USD price has been under sustained pressure since mid-last week, retreating from the 50-day EMA resistance at 1.0440.

The downtrend continued into the new week, with Monday's price action seeing a brief push toward the 1.0331 resistance level before a mild retracement.

As of Tuesday, February 11, the pair remains subdued, with limited movement in both the Asian and European sessions, currently trading at 1.0304. Due to fundamental factors supporting the Dollar strength, the pair now finds itself at a critical juncture, caught between the 1.0331 resistance level and the 1.0232 support zone.

EUR/USD price dynamics (December 2024-February 2025). Source: TradingView.

The U.S. dollar has gained traction following President Donald Trump’s decision to sharply raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. His announcement of forthcoming reciprocal tariffs on other nations has fueled trade concerns, further boosting the greenback’s appeal. Meanwhile, European economic data releases remain sparse this week, leaving the EUR vulnerable to external developments.

Adding to the focus, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee today. Market participants will be keenly watching for insights into the Fed’s stance on Trump’s tariff policies and their potential inflationary impact. Given the ECB’s lack of impactful commentary, the USD side of the equation remains the dominant force in shaping EUR/USD’s trajectory.

EUR/USD technical outlook: 1.0331 resistance caps upside, 1.0232 support in view

A break above the 1.0331 resistance level could trigger further recovery, while a breach below support may open the door to deeper losses. Technical indicators add weight to the bearish outlook, with RSI readings on both the daily and 4-hour charts supporting the likelihood of further downside movement.

If EUR/USD fails to reclaim 1.0331, renewed selling pressure could drive the pair toward the key 1.0232 support. A breakdown below this level would confirm the bearish bias and expose further downside. Conversely, a break above 1.0331 may provide temporary relief, but the broader trend remains against the euro unless fundamental drivers shift significantly.

EUR/USD price struggles to recover amid trade tensions on European cars. The downward momentum raises the risk of extending losses for a third consecutive bearish day.

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