U.S. defense role in Indo-Pacific faces scrutiny at ASEAN security summit

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U.S. defense at ASEAN summit

Highlights

U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth will face ASEAN counterparts in Cebu seeking clarity on Washington's Iran war priorities and Indo-Pacific security commitments, especially amid regional concerns of diluted U.S. readiness.
Philippine military shadowed China's Liaoning aircraft carrier group before the October 28-29 summit, as defense chiefs from the United States, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines prepare for focused alliance talks.
The Iran war, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, has disrupted shipping and oil markets, intensifying Southeast Asia's focus on energy security during the ASEAN summit.

Security agenda sharpens in Cebu talks

As reported by BusinessWorld Online, Hegseth is likely to face questions over how Washington balances the demands of the Iran war with its security commitments in the Indo-Pacific when he meets Southeast Asian counterparts in Cebu. The Pentagon says his attendance at the gathering in the Philippine province is meant to reaffirm U.S. commitment to "peace through strength" in the Pacific.

Analysts say regional governments are likely to use sideline meetings to seek clarity on the endgame in Iran, what Washington expects from allies and partners, and whether the conflict is weakening U.S. readiness elsewhere. Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, says governments in the region want greater certainty on U.S. alliances and partnerships, especially in relation to the Western Pacific.

The issue is especially important for the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally whose relations with Beijing have deteriorated amid repeated confrontations in the South China Sea, Chinese sanctions and the recent summoning of China's ambassador. China is also represented at the meeting, with its defense ministry saying on Tuesday that the country's defense attaché in the Philippines will attend.

Regional tensions and alliance messaging

Days before the October 28 to 29 meeting, the Philippine military says it monitored and shadowed China's Liaoning aircraft carrier group as it passed waters off the southern Philippines toward the Celebes Sea. Analysts say stronger signals are more likely to emerge in talks among like-minded partners than in the eventual chairman's statement, which is expected to retain familiar ASEAN language.

Those partners include the Squad, made up of the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, whose defense chiefs are set to meet on October 28. Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, says Hegseth has an opportunity to address China, the disputed South China Sea and Washington's commitments to treaty allies, with many participants expected to seek reassurance despite political turmoil in Washington and the effect of the Iran war on U.S. capabilities.

The broader economic backdrop is also shaping the summit. The Iran war, launched by U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, has disrupted shipping and oil markets, exposing Southeast Asia's dependence on imported fuel and pushing energy security higher on ASEAN's agenda. Poling says Manila is trying to balance cooperation on energy connectivity, the digital economy and coast guard coordination against worsening tension with China and stalled progress on a South China Sea code of conduct.

In our previous coverage of rising sovereign borrowing risks amid geopolitical shocks, we noted that prolonged conflicts and higher fiscal spending are straining government balance sheets as interest rates stay elevated. We also explained that wars and trade disruptions can push up energy and food prices, worsening inflation and complicating refinancing—pressures that tend to hit emerging and frontier markets hardest.

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