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The United Kingdom is particularly vulnerable to the economic fallout from a potential conflict between the U.S. and Iran linked to Trump.
Robert Peston notes that those on low incomes and public finances are especially at risk, as discussed in a new podcast episode featuring Mohamed El-Erian and a colleague.
The potential escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran raises significant concerns for the UK's public finances, particularly given the heightened sensitivity of borrowing costs to geopolitical instability. Similar dynamics were observed when an Iran-related crisis previously drove a surge in UK government funding costs, as detailed in the analysis of rising yields on gilts included in Robert Peston: Iran war drives UK government funding cost surge.