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Higher oil prices raise inflation and reduce income, Dario Perkins notes
Economist Dario Perkins analyzed the debate around high oil prices, stating that an increase raises inflation and reduces the level of disposable income and profits.
He suggested that even if oil prices remain elevated, the negative effect on growth tends to diminish over time, characterizing it as a temporary 'soft patch.' Perkins also said that knowing the cause of higher oil prices provides important context for understanding the current situation.
Perkins has previously cautioned that a downturn in the U.S. economy could occur faster than in other advanced economies, citing factors such as labor hoarding in his recent analysis. He has also observed that, after the 1990 oil shock, only one central bank chose to raise rates in response to a major fiscal stimulus, as noted in his review of central bank actions. His previous work provides context for his current assessment of oil price impacts on growth and policy.
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