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Skanda Amarnath: Supply shocks threaten real income gains
Skanda Amarnath, industry influencer, observes that recent data on nominal labor income growth is somewhat backward looking but had indicated a soft landing with stabilization at a healthy pace.
However, Amarnath adds that self-inflicted supply shocks are causing inflation to rise again, which could put renewed pressure on real incomes.
Amarnath previously noted that core PCE inflation remains over 1 percent above target, while interest rates are only slightly above neutral. Industry watchers have also drawn attention to methodological issues in market-based nonhousing data components. These issues include lags that can affect the reliability of economic data.
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