Andy Constan: Bond term premium at post-pandemic high, yields may need to rise

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22.07.2026

Andy Constan: Bond term premium at post-pandemic high, yields may need to rise — Bond term premium at post-pandemic high

Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, points out that bond term premium measures—representing expected excess return over cash—are currently at post-pandemic highs and closely match their long-term levels from before and after quantitative easing (QE).

To achieve a more reasonable expected Sharpe ratio for holding bonds over cash in a market without active QE, Constan suggests that bond yields, specifically in 10-year maturities, would need to rise by 44 basis points.

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Constan has previously commented on market reactions to corporate actions. He noted that ORCL shares dropped 58 percent after the company shifted its business strategy to building compute capacity. In a separate observation, Constan reported that the ONDS CEO discussed him directly, calling the executive incompetent.

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