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Alexander Stahel, founder / CIO at Commodity Private Equity Fund, points out that the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.3 percent, emphasizing that this move is not solely driven by oil prices.
Stahel explains that markets are anticipating tighter financial conditions ahead, suggesting that expectations for further Federal Reserve action are at play. He highlights that core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, stands at 3.4 percent.
Stahel has addressed risks tied to market cycles in earlier analysis. He previously discussed how high returns can attract excess capital and lead to overcapacity in bull markets. In another report, Stahel credited Elvira Nabiullina's monetary policy with preventing a collapse of Russia's economy.