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Liz Thomas highlights that, based on a range of FOMC and market perspectives, the Taylor rule indicates the effective federal funds rate should be between 4.5% and 6%.
This implies at least three potential rate hikes on the lower end of estimates.
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Thomas recently noted that Nomura's TACO indicator has reached its highest level since late March as market risks increased. She also pointed to strong private sector job growth in June based on ADP and Revelio data. These observations suggest continued attention on key economic signals.