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E.J. Antoni states that small business optimism dipped in August but remained higher than the long-run average. Productivity improvements helped reduce labor costs, while business owners reported worsening sales and increased concerns about inflation. Notably, many business owners felt more pessimistic about the broader economy but maintained a positive outlook for their own businesses.
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Antoni recently highlighted that headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, attributing persistent inflation to earlier monthly increases. He also reported that the CLV Fed has updated its federal funds rate forecast based on seven monetary rules. These earlier updates provide additional context for recent concerns among small business owners about inflation and economic prospects.