Bonds are a buy only if U.S. spending is cut, Luke Gromen argues

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14.09.2026

Bonds are a buy only if U.S. spending is cut, Luke Gromen argues — U.S. bonds require spending cuts

Luke Gromen, founder, president, macroeconomic analyst, investor at FFTT, LLC (Forest for the Trees), provides a simplified framework for turning bullish on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.

He states that higher interest rates—and the resulting rise in U.S. interest expense—must lead to significant cuts in entitlements and defense spending for bonds to become attractive. Otherwise, he believes the bonds remain a sell. Gromen concludes that one of three elements—bonds, USD, or the Boomer generation—is in a bubble.

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Gromen has previously argued that allowing gold prices to rise would help balance U.S. trade, weaken the dollar, and boost Chinese consumption, according to a past analysis here. He has also highlighted gold’s historical outperformance during late-stage U.S. capital expenditure booms in earlier research. These views inform his current perspective on the attractiveness of Treasuries.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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