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Phil Rosen highlights a rare occurrence in market history, noting that in 40 years, there have only been 13 months when the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell below 60 while the Nasdaq index was up more than 20% year-over-year.
He points out that 12 of those 13 months have occurred in the past 13 months, underscoring a unique recent disconnect between consumer sentiment and stock market performance.
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Phil Rosen has previously highlighted that the Russell 2000 index gained 28 percent over five years, with most of the advance occurring in the past year, while the S&P 500 led performance since 2021, according to a recent article. He also noted that only 27 S&P 500 companies currently trade at more than 40 times forward price-to-earnings, a level last seen during the 2022 and 2020 market downturns, as detailed in a separate report. These observations add context to the unusual relationship between stock market gains and investor sentiment described in the latest data.