Nvidia stock holds key support as Vera Rubin production expands
Nvidia is expanding production of its Vera Rubin platform while strengthening its U.S. supply chain with new manufacturing capacity. Ahead of Alphabet's earnings report, the stock continues to hold above the key $204.50 support level, which will likely determine whether the current recovery can continue.
Nvidia announced that production of its NVL72 systems is ramping up, with the first racks already deployed at CoreWeave, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
Another positive development was the opening of Wistron's first U.S. manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas. The plant is already producing GB300 Grace Blackwell Ultra systems and is expected to begin manufacturing Vera Rubin platforms later. Production capacity is planned to scale to tens of thousands of boards per month.
Another major source of volatility will be Alphabet's earnings report after today's market close. Google Cloud's performance and management's capital expenditure guidance will indicate whether hyperscalers continue to accelerate AI infrastructure investment. Strong results would support Nvidia, while more cautious guidance could trigger renewed profit-taking across semiconductor stocks.
Downside risk grows below $204.50
The scenario outlined in the previous analysis has fully played out. After losing the $204.50 support level, Nvidia stock tested the psychological $200 mark before buyers stepped in and stabilized the price above that level.
The key level to watch today remains $204.50. If the regular trading session opens above this level and buyers successfully defend it, the recovery could extend toward the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $209.80. A breakout above the 50-day SMA would open the way toward the next resistance at $213.
However, if Nvidia opens below $204.50 and fails to reclaim the level, bullish momentum would weaken, increasing the probability of another test of $200. A decisive break below that support would invalidate the short-term recovery scenario and shift attention back to the 200-day SMA near $192.50.
NVDA holds support ahead of Alphabet earnings
The expansion of Vera Rubin production and new manufacturing capacity in the United States strengthen Nvidia's long-term outlook. However, in the short term, the company's direction will largely depend on Alphabet's earnings report, which will provide another key signal on hyperscalers' AI spending.
As long as Nvidia remains below its 50-day SMA, the current rebound should still be viewed as a technical recovery rather than the start of a new uptrend. Holding above $204.50 would keep the recovery scenario intact, while a break below that level would once again strengthen selling pressure.
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