Can Oracle stock avoid deeper losses as sellers dominate the price action?

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Oracle slides 3.51% today to $116.41

Highlights

Oracle secures a $7 billion, 10-year software contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, ensuring long-term revenue stability.
Despite the landmark deal improving public sector visibility, Oracle shares continue to face selling pressure amid broader market weakness.
Shares remain in a pronounced downtrend with sustained bearish momentum, trading below major averages and expected to move between $112.22 and $120.7 over the next few days.

Long-term defense contract fails to offset broad selling pressure

Oracle Corporation was awarded a $7 billion, 10-year enterprise software contract by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a five-year base term and an option for a further five years, according to Tradingkey and CNBC. This agreement establishes a substantial and stable long-term revenue stream, enhancing visibility of Oracle's public sector engagement. Although such a landmark contract would ordinarily drive positive sentiment by improving earnings predictability, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish technical signals overwhelm as resistance holds and sellers dominate

MA-20 and MA-50 cross below the current price on the working timeframe, while the MA-200 on the daily chart remains well above the present level, reinforcing the downside. The Ichimoku Kijun is at $124.14 and now acts as immediate resistance. Among momentum indicators, MACD and ADX both issue Sell signals, while the RSI reads 35.51 and also signals Sell. CCI likewise points to Sell, and Stochastic RSI registers an Oversold condition, suggesting that downward momentum may pause in the short term. Bull/Bear Power is Overbought, indicating dominance by sellers during intraday moves. The Awesome Oscillator is Neutral and does not confirm the primary trend.

Further declines likely as upside break remains improbable

Over the next 2 to 3 trading days, ORCL’s price is expected to fluctuate within the $112.22 to $120.7 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained upward move remains very low, while the chance of a further decline is high, making any recovery attempt considerably less likely. Should price decisively break above the $124.14 resistance, a brief rebound could occur. The downside scenario points to a continuation of weakness if support at $112.22 fails, which would likely extend the ongoing downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees persistent weakness in Oracle’s technical setup despite the major Department of Defense contract. He notes that negative momentum is reinforced by multiple technical indicators, and short-term recovery prospects remain remote unless key resistance at $124.14 is overcome. Kharitonov points out that even strong fundamental news failed to reverse the downtrend, which signals caution. "Until ORCL decisively breaks back above $124.14, my base case stays defensive with risk of further downside if $112.22 does not hold."

Earlier, analysts noted that Oracle continued to face firm downside pressure, as bearish momentum and technical indicators dominated its outlook. Despite the announcement of a major long-term government contract, the current data reinforces the prevailing negative trend, making further weakness likely unless a decisive move above $124.14 signals a sustained reversal.

Source of Data: ORCL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.