Will Shopify stock hold $149.07 support after ARK trims stake?

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Shopify drops 3.12% today to $153.56

Highlights

Shopify exceeded revenue and adjusted profit expectations for the second quarter with broad-based growth and raised full-year guidance.
ARK trimmed its stake in Shopify, introducing incremental selling from a major institutional holder as the stock experienced market selling pressure.
Shopify stock trades with strong short- and medium-term buying momentum, but multiple indicators are overbought and price is expected to range from $149.07 to $163.8 in the next 2 to 3 days.

Upbeat earnings and AI adoption offset by institutional selling pressure

Shopify reported second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street’s revenue and adjusted profit expectations, with management citing broad-based growth across merchant sizes, geographies, and adoption of AI-powered tools, according to Finance Yahoo. The quarter included accelerated revenue, higher merchant sales volume, and an increase in AI-driven orders, prompting management to raise company guidance as reported by Kalkinemedia. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood’s ARK trimmed its stake in Shopify, a move that may have introduced incremental selling from a major institutional holder, according to Investing.com, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Buy momentum prevails as technicals signal overbought conditions

On the technical front, SHOP/USD has held above the MA-20 at $152.48 and MA-50 at $150.53 on the h1 chart, remaining well supported above the long-term MA-200 at $132.39 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun currently acts as resistance at $153.71. Among momentum indicators, MACD and ADX remain in Buy mode, while RSI at 71.33, Stoch RSI, and CCI show overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power is also overbought, pointing to clear intraday buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator further supports this underlying momentum, even as low volatility prevails.

Bullish breakout likely as price eyes resistance-driven range

Over the next 2–3 trading days, SHOP/USD is expected to stay within a $149.07 to $163.8 range. The probability of an upward move is classified as very high, with a downward scenario seen as very unlikely. In the baseline scenario, price action would remain sideways inside this band. However, a break above $153.71 (the Ichimoku Kijun resistance) could target the range high, while a break below $149.07 would expose the stock to a faster decline.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Shopify maintaining strong fundamental and sentiment support after its second-quarter earnings beat and positive guidance revision. The analyst notes that despite a large institutional holder paring exposure, technical momentum and broad-based growth trends remain constructive. He believes that recent price action above key moving averages and strong buyer signals reinforce the stock's near-term resilience. 'With Shopify pushing higher on robust fundamentals and sector adoption of AI, I expect continued strength as long as price holds above $149.07,' says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that Shopify was gaining support following robust quarterly results and upwardly revised guidance, with emphasis on the firm's adoption of AI tools. The current analysis builds on this by highlighting continued technical resilience and short-term momentum, making a break above $153.71 a critical level for further upside in the days ahead.

Source of Data: SHOP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.