Intesa Sanpaolo eyes rebound as €35 billion MPS deal moves forward
Intesa Sanpaolo shares fully played out the previous bearish scenario, falling toward the €6.71 target and settling below it near €6.68. After six consecutive losing sessions, the probability of a short-term technical rebound is increasing noticeably.
Reuters reported that Intesa Sanpaolo does not expect additional requests from Consob or defensive measures by Monte dei Paschi di Siena to delay or materially affect its offer for MPS. The Italian regulator has asked Intesa to clarify the potential impact of two counter-deals proposed by MPS in August.
The focus is on Intesa’s roughly €35 billion cash-and-stock offer for MPS. In response, MPS presented plans for two transactions involving Banco BPM and Banca Generali with a combined value of around €36 billion.
The next major milestone comes on September 10, when Intesa shareholders are expected to vote on the proposed acquisition of MPS.
Six-day selloff raises rebound potential
The scenario from the previous analysis fully played out. Intesa Sanpaolo shares fell toward the €6.71 target, broke below it and settled around €6.67.
The stock has now declined for six consecutive trading sessions, materially increasing the probability of a short-term rebound. Confirmation would require a daily doji candle to form on elevated volume.
If such a signal appears, the nearest recovery target would be the record high around €6.93.
Intesa Sanpaolo faces higher volatility ahead of the MPS vote
The latest Reuters report appears to ease some fundamental concerns surrounding the MPS deal, as Intesa does not view Consob’s requests or MPS’s countermeasures as obstacles to moving the process forward. However, weakness across the Italian banking sector and deteriorating global risk sentiment are still outweighing this factor.
After six days of declines, the probability of a technical recovery is rising, but any reversal still requires confirmation through volume and candlestick structure. The September 10 shareholder vote adds another potential source of volatility. Successful price stabilization could bring €6.93 back into focus, while a lack of buying demand would keep pressure on the shares.
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